NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 11 2009

11/13/2009
by The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 11

Recapping Week 10

Marketwatch is coming off our best week of the season, hitting all three games for the first time this year. In game one, home-underdog Colorado came back from an 11-point halftime deficit to edge Texas A&M 35-34. Ohio State kept it rolling for Marketwatch, out-rushing Penn State 228-76 en route to a convincing 24-7 win over the favored Nittany Lions. Our final game of the week, and closest of the season, certainly wasn’t short on offense, as Tulsa and Houston combined for 1229 total yards. Stud quarterback Case Keenum was up to his usual shenanigans, throwing for 522 yards and three touchdowns in the come-from-behind, one-point victory over Tulsa. Luckily for Marketwatch, we grabbed Tulsa at +2, beating the spread by one point for our first 3-0 week of the season.

Overall Record = 17-13 (56.7%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 11 – Games to Watch

Michigan State vs. Purdue (12 p.m. EST)

Coming off two straight losses, Michigan State got back on track last week, beating up on Western Michigan 49-14. Quarterback Kirk Cousins carved up the Broncos’ secondary, racking up 353 yards through the air on only 25 attempts. After starting the season 1-5, Purdue has won three of their last four games, including a 12-point victory over Ohio State and last week’s 38-36 thriller against Michigan in Ann Arbor.

This game opened as a pick at CRIS and the public is backing Michigan State, who are currently receiving 63% of spread bets. This public “Spartan-love” has pushed Michigan State up to a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. This line movement has added value to Purdue and sharp money has not hesitated to jump behind the Boilermakers. SportsInsights has triggered three positive Smart Money Plays on Purdue, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and CRIS (+12.32 units), two of our top three sportsbooks for NCAA Smart Money plays this season. In this match-up, we’ll go against the public and take the home underdog being back by Smart Money. 

Purdue +3

Missouri vs. Kansas State (12:30 p.m. EST)

Missouri beat up on non-conference opponents early in the season, jumping out to a 4-0 record. However, the Tigers have struggled lately, losing four of their first five conference games heading into this week’s showdown with the Big 12 North leader, Kansas State. The Wildcats, who have been a bit of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team this season, played well last week, shutting down in-state rival Kansas and quarterback Todd Reesing in K-State’s 17-10 win.

Kansas State opened as a 2.5-point home-favorite at Pinnacle and and are a huge public favorite, garnering 71% of spread bets, 78% of moneyline bets and 65% of parlay bets. With these betting percentages, Kansas State should have grown to a bigger favorite, yet the line has dropped 3.5 points at Pinnacle, making Missouri a 1-point favorite. This considerable reverse-line movement has triggering nine, yes nine, positive Smart Money Plays, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+13.74 units) and Matchbook (+13.47 units), and two positive Steam Moves on Missouri. Most sportsbooks currently have Missouri as a 1-point favorite, but there are still a few out there who have this game as a pick. As we learned last week in the Tulsa game, one extra point can be huge, so do some line-shopping and grab the best number possible.

Missouri – pk

Arizona vs. California (3:30 p.m. EST)

In a sport where very few things are certain, there are two things that we know for sure each and every week. First, someone will make a joke about Charlie Weis, and second, Washington State will get hammered. Last week’s destruction of Washington State happened to come at the hands of Arizona, who effortlessly ran through a porous defensive line in a laughable 48-7 beat-down of the Cougars. As good as Saturday was for Arizona, it was equally as bad for California, who not only fell to Oregon State by 17 points, but also lost Jahvid Best indefinitely after the star running back suffered a scary concussion and had to be carted off the field.

Arizona opened as a 2.5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently receiving 69% of spread bets, 82% of moneyline bets and 80% of parlay bets. Even though the Wildcats are a solid public favorite, the line has dropped a ridiculous 5.5 points at Olympic. This is the most drastic reverse-line movement Marketwatch has seen all season, and to no surprise, this game lit up SportsInsights’ Betting Systems like a Christmas tree. Six positive Smart Money Plays, including one from Matchbook (+13.47 units), and a Steam Move from ThePig (+12.9 units) have been triggered on California. We like the reverse-line movement and plethora of positive moves on this game, so we’ll give the three and take California at home.

California -3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 11.

Games to Watch (17-13)
Purdue +3
Missouri – pk
California -3

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com

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