NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 10 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 10

Recapping Week 9

In the 2009 edition of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, Tim Tebow broke Herschel Walker’s SEC record for rushing touchdowns in Florida’s 41-17 beat-down of Georgia. Our second loss of the week came at the hands of Louisville, who covered the three-point spread in a 21-13 victory over Arkansas State. Auburn, getting 4.5 points, defeated Ole Miss straight-up, giving Marketwatch a 1-2 record for the week.

Overall Record = 14-13 (51.9%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 10 – Games to Watch

Texas A&M vs. Colorado (1:30 p.m. EST)

Texas A&M notched its second straight victory last week, taking care of Iowa State 35-10 in College Station. Colorado got manhandled in the trenches by Missouri, gaining a grand total of -14 yards on the ground in a 36-17 loss to the Tigers.

The Aggies opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and have dropped to -3, despite receiving 80% of spread bets. This reverse-line movement has triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on Colorado, including one each at Matchbook (+12.93 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+8.26 units). We like taking underdogs at home, especially when the Smart Money agrees.

Colorado +3

Ohio State vs. Penn State (3:30 p.m. EST)

Ohio State is coming off its most lopsided victory of the season, a 45-0 pounding of New Mexico State. The Buckeyes dominated every aspect of that game, out gaining the Aggies 559-62 in total yards. After suffering its only loss of the season six weeks ago against Iowa, Penn State has gone 5-0, outscoring opponents 176-43.

Penn State opened as a 3.5-point home favorite at CRIS and the Nittany Lions are currently garnering 59% of spread bets. The betting percentages were relatively even earlier in the week, but in the last 24 hours Penn State has become the clear-cut public favorite, pushing the line up to -5 across the board. A Steam Play on Ohio State was triggered at 5Dimes (+22.8 units), so we’ll follow the steam, go against the public and take the Buckeyes and the points.

Ohio State +5

Houston vs. Tulsa (3:30 p.m. EST)

Houston and Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum roll into Tulsa Saturday with the number one-ranked offense in the FBS, averaging a ridiculous 563.3 yards/game. Keenum went off last week, throwing for 559 yards and five touchdowns, capped off by a 28-yard toss to Patrick Edwards with 21 seconds remaining in the game to give the Cougars a seven-point victory over Southern Miss. Tulsa jumped out to a 4-1 start this season, but have dropped their last three games, including last week’s 27-13 loss against SMU.

Houston opened as a 3-point favorite at Pinnacle and are an enormous public favorite, receiving 91% of spread bets, 78% of moneyline bets and 98% of parlay bets. Sharp money has hammered this game, shrinking the line to -1, despite the betting percentages. This reverse-line movement has triggered four positive Smart Money Plays on Tulsa, including moves at Matchbook (+12.93 units), CRIS (+11.23 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+8.26 units), which happen to be SportsInsights’ top three NCAA football Smart Money sportsbooks this season. Tulsa is getting 1.5 points at most sportsbooks, but Bodog is still offering a full 2, which we’ll gladly grab.

Tulsa +2 (Bodog)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 10.

Games to Watch (14-13)
Colorado +3
Ohio State +5
Tulsa +2  (Bodog)

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights