NCAAFB Marketwatch National Championship Edition 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch . The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – National Championship Edition

Recapping Bowl Edition IV

Marketwatch struggled to a 1-2 record in this season’s second to last edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. With under one minute to play, Penn State kicked a game-winning 21-yard field goal, beating LSU, and the spread, by two. Our final two games were both tied in the third quarter, before turnovers derailed any chances Northern Illinois and Oklahoma State had of winning, and beating the spread.

Regular Season Record = 24-18-1 (57.1%)
Bowl Record = 4-3 (57.1%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

Texas vs. Alabama (1/7 – 8:35 pm EST)

After being left out of last year’s BCS National Championship game in favor of Oklahoma (a team Texas beat by 10 points during the regular season), the Longhorns ran the table this season, won the Big XII Championship, and now have their shot at the title. Alabama also comes into this matchup undefeated, including their 32-13 dismantling of previously #1-ranked Florida in the SEC Championship game.

Alabama opened as a 5.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and, coming off their blowout of Florida, are currently receiving 67% of spread bets. Even though the public is solidly behind the Crimson Tide, the line has shrunk to -3.5 at Pinnacle, suggesting sharp money is coming down on Texas. SportsInsights’ Betting Systems agree, triggering eight positive Smart Money Plays on Texas, including one at Cata/VegasVic (+17.26 units), our #1 ranked sportsbook. For the final time this season, we’re following the sharps, fading the public and taking the Longhorns and the points.

Texas +4.5 (Bodog)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch.

Games to Watch (28-21-1)
Texas +4.5 (Bodog)

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights