NCAAFB Marketwatch Bowl Edition 4 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch . The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – Bowl Edition IV

Recapping Bowl Edition III

Everyone knew about the contrasting offensive styles in our last match-up, with Air Force’s triple option attack going up against Houston’s multi-receiver spread sets and aerial approach. The crucial unit, though, turned out to be Air Force’s pass defense. They intercepted Case Keenum a whopping six times and held him to a season-low 222 yards passing. The Falcons also executed offensively, as both Asher Clark and Jared Tew ran for 100+ yards and two touchdowns en route to a 47-20 victory over the Cougars.

Regular Season Record = 24-18-1 (57.1%)
Bowl Record = 3-1 (75%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

LSU vs. Penn State (1/1 – 1:00 pm EST)

After starting the season with five straight wins, LSU struggled against the top teams in the SEC, losing close games to Florida, Alabama and Mississippi. Like LSU, Penn State feasted on its weaker conference opponents this season, but did not have enough firepower to compete with Iowa and Ohio State for the Big 10 title.

Penn State opened as a 2.5-point favorite at CRIS and the public is heavily behind LSU. Sixty-five percent of spread bets are on the Tigers, which shrank the line to -2 early on at many sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. Four positive Smart Money plays have been triggered on the Nittany Lions, including one each at ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units). With no recognizable Steam on Penn State to push their line back up, the consistent pounding of public support on LSU has just dropped the line to a pick at many books, including Grande, BetUS, Jamaica and Bodog. Go out and grab this value on a public dog with lots of sharp money behind it.

Penn State -110

Northern Illinois vs. South Florida (1/2 – 12:00 pm EST)

Northern Illinois finished their season on a sour note, losing their final two games against Ohio and Central Michigan, the top two teams in the MAC. After a hot start, South Florida also struggled down the stretch, dropping five of their final seven games.

South Florida opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and public betting has pushed the line to -7. The Bulls are currently receiving 73% of spread bets, yet SportsInsights’ Betting Systems have found value on the Huskies, triggering four positive Smart Money plays on Northern Illinois. Like our first game, two of these moves are from ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units), giving us the confidence to go against the public percentages and take the Huskies +7.

Northern Illinois +7

Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State (1/2 – 2:00 pm EST)

Coming off big wins against Tennessee and LSU, Mississippi was flat in their final game of the regular season, losing 41-27 to in-state rival Mississippi State. In the 2009 edition of the Oklahoma Bedlam Football Game, the Cowboys got thoroughly dominated by the Sooners, mustering a measley 109 yards of total offense in the 27-0 loss.

Mississippi opened as a 3.5-point favorite at CRIS and are currently receiving 67% of spread bets. Sharp money has jumped all of this game, triggering six positive Smart Money plays on Oklahoma State, including moves from, yes, you guessed it, ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/Vegas Vic (+20.26 units). The Rebels are a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but Mississippi is giving an extra half-point at Carib, moving the spread off the key number of three. We like the Cowboys and are grabbing the three and a half while it’s still out there.

Oklahoma State +3.5 (Carib)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch.

Games to Watch (27-19-1)
Penn State -110
Northern Illinois +7
Oklahoma State +3.5 (Carib)

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights