NCAAFB Marketwatch Bowl Edition 1 2009

by The Team at

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch . The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketwatch – Bowl Edition I

Recapping Week 15

Last week’s edition of Marketwatch emphasized the importance of line shopping. At most sportsbooks, Army was getting 14 points, while a few still offered an extra half-point, moving the line off the key number of 14. After getting off to a slow start, Navy eventually got it rolling and topped Army 17-3, giving Marketwatch a win, albeit a close one, in our only game of the week.

Regular Season Record = 24-18-1 (57.1%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

Wyoming vs. Fresno State (12/19 – 4:30 pm)

Wyoming finished up its regular season with a 17-16 win against Colorado State, evening up their record at 6-6 and making them eligible to go bowling. Fresno State’s last game ended in dramatic fashion, with the Bulldogs scoring a touchdown in the final seconds, followed by a successful two-point conversion, to nip Illinois 53-52.

Fresno State opened as a 10-point favorite at CRIS and are currently receiving 65% of spread bets, as well as 67% of moneyline bets and 74% of parlay bets. The public percentages have pushed the line to -10.5 and SportsInsights’ Betting Systems have found value on the heavy underdog. Three positive Smart Money Plays have been triggered on Wyoming, including one at Matchbook (+16.08 units). To kick off our first Bowl Edition of the season, we’ll go against the public, follow the Smart Money and take the Cowboys and the points.

Wyoming +11

Central Florida vs. Rutgers (12/19 – 8 pm)

Central Florida wrapped up their season on a three-game winning streak, including a 37-32 victory over then #15-ranked Houston in the middle of November. Conversely, Rutgers stumbles into the St. Petersburg Bowl as losers of two of their last three games.

Central Florida opened as a one-point favorite at CRIS and the public is all over Rutgers, who are currently garnering 71% of spread wagers. Public betting has shrunk the line three and a half points, pushing Rutgers up to a 2.5-point favorite. Four positive Smart Money plays have been triggered on Central Florida, including one each at Cata/VegasVic (+19.26 units) and Matchbook (+16.08 units), our top two sportsbooks for Smart Money plays during the regular season. We like these moves and have no problem grabbing the Knights and the three points they’re getting.

Central Florida +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch .

Games to Watch (24-18-1)
Wyoming +11
Central Florida +3

It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch .

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights