NBA Marketwatch Edition 11 2010-11

Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
3/1/2011 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at

Welcome to the NBA edition of Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at Sports Insights gives sports fans an unprecedented glimpse into the NBA point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch.

The staff at analyzes the marketplace to identify which games the public is chasing and which ones the sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for tonight’s NBA games.

Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition

Recapping Last Week

We went against the favored Los Angeles Lakers at home, and we paid the price.  We had the Atlanta Hawks getting 7.5 points, but the Lakers jumped out to an early 28-15 lead, and was able to cruise to a 24-point victory.  You might think that this would make us think twice about betting against the Lakers, but think again…

2010-11 NBA Games to Watch: 4-6 (40%)*

MInnesota Timberwolves (+9.5) over Los Angeles Lakers

When at first you don’t succeed, try and try again.  It’s not just a motivational poster, it is an ideology that a good sports investor must keep in mind.  There are going to be highs and lows to a season, but the important thing is to stick with your system and ride it through.

Getting burned by the Lakers last week won’t stop us from seeing value betting against them again.  The Lakers are 39-19 this season, and the Timberwolves are 14-46 this season.  Looking at their overall records, it’s no surprise that 80% of the bets are coming in on the Lakers to cover.

However, wins and losses don’t tell you everything about the game.  Sure, the Timberwolves have been bad, but they have played a lot of close games.  The Timberwolves are 26-34 against the spread this season for a 43.3% winning percentage.  While that number isn’t all that great either, realize that the Lakers record against the spread is 29-32 for a 47.5% winning percentage.  In the betting world, the Lakers and Timberwolves have had very comparable seasons.

The line for this game opened at 9.5 points at Pinnacle and Cris, but has moved to 9 at both books.  Sports Insights has tracked a Pinnacle Steam Move (105-89, +5.61 units won) on the Timberwolves early this morning and the line has remained steady at nine despite the public pounding on the defending champions.  Let’s stick to our guns, and take the live home dog tonight against Kobe and the gang.

Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 (Bet at SIA +9.5)

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Games to Watch: 4-6
Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5

It should be an exciting night in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  We’ll be back next week with another edition of  Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at