11/11/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the NBA edition of Sports Marketwatch, wherethe Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans an unprecedented glimpse into the NBApoint-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happeningon the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!Initially, the NBA Edition of Sports Marketwatch will be a weekly columnpublished on Wednesdays, normally around 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com analyzes the marketplace, and especially thesports betting industry’s largest and most reputable sportsbooks, to identifywhich games the public is chasing and which ones the Sharps are pounding. Let’stake a look at what’s in store for tonight’s NBA games.
SportsMarketplace – NBA Edition
Last Wednesday, Marketwatch tallied its first win of this young NBA season.The scrappy Houston Rockets put up a great fight at home against the Pau-er-lessLakers (too much?), ultimately losing by one point in overtime. Still,they covered the spread, and the bookmakers took over 80% of all bets on thegame. That’s what we’re trying to do here: find where the sportsbooks aregoing to beat the public and skim our portion off the top. They won’tmind. In our other game, the Nets held Carmelo well below his seasonaverage only to allow rookie Ty Lawson to score 23 points off the bench.No New Jersey player even topped 20, and they were routed at home by theNuggets, 122-94.
2009-10 NBA Games to Watch: 1-3, 25%*
Sports Marketwatch 11/11/09 – Games to Watch
New York Knicks +6 over Atlanta Hawks
In the least surprising news of the week, Knicks fans are in dire straightsafter their team has won only 1 of their first 8 games. We’re lessconcerned with the total wins and losses by the orange and blue – especially inlight of the constant and overwhelming media coverage of a certain royally-monikoredplayer’s plans to play there – as we are with how they perform against thespread. So far, they’ve been respectable in the friendly confines ofMadison Square Garden, covering against the Hornets and Jazz and missing by ahalf-point against Lebron’s Cavaliers. Tonight’s opponent, the AtlantaHawks, have gotten off to a very strong 6-1 start against the spread (ATS).Jamal Crawford will be chomping at the bit to rip up his former team; hopefully,he’ll revert to the inefficient shooter who tried to carry the Knicks byshooting well-defended three-pointers en masse.
The Hawks opened as 6-point favorites at CRIS and are currently getting 79%of spread and parlay bets. We’ve seen good reverse line movement, asAtlanta is now favored by either 5.5 or 5 points at most sportsbooks.Smart Money is backing New York at both 5Dimes (+1.36 Units Won) and ourearly-season standout Olympic (+9.36). We’re going to ride the hot handand play on the Knickerbockers at home. A little line shopping will revealan extra half-point at SportsInteraction.
New York +6 (SIA)
Boston Celtics -11 over Utah Jazz
Boston began the season blowing out anyone who dared step on the court withthem, showing the form that made them champions two seasons ago. Since a31-point victory at Philadelphia, however, they’ve looked awfully mortal: a2-point win at lowly Minnesota, a home loss against Phoenix and a win atdepleted New Jersey that was in question until very late. Tonight they’llface a Utah Jazz team that typically struggles on the road and is likely to bewithout All-Star point guard Deron Williams. In fact, Utah’s entire rosteris basically injured. They’ll also be missing Ronnie Price, Matt Harpring,Kyle Korver and CJ Miles. However knowledgeable you may be aboutbasketball, just know that we typically get more worried with every injuredplayer whose name we recognize. These guys are all important.
Nevertheless, Utah is a near-perennial playoff team with some big-timeperformers. Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko are huge talents that WILLbe in uniform tonight, which perhaps explains why, after Utah opened as10.5-point underdogs at both CRIS and Pinnacle, they’ve gotten 59% of publicspread bets. Yet the line hasn’t shrunk at all. Instead, it’s growna full point and a half at many books, all the way to +12. We’ve seen aSteam Move triggered by ThePig (+0.5 Units), but it’s the line movement that hasus so excited, indicating some big money. Take the rare chance to play onthe Celtics as a public dog, and we don’t think they’ll disappoint. Shoparound for the best line on this game. You’ll find a handful of books at-11.5 and even an 11 at BetUS.
Boston – 11 (BetUS)
Games to Watch: 1-3 = 25%
New York +6 (SIA)
Boston -11 (BetUS)
It should be an exciting night in the sports marketplace. Keep SportsMarketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for thelatest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.We’ll be back next Wednesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch –NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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