11/04/2009 5:30 PM EST
By The Team atSportsInsights.com
Welcome to the NBA edition of Sports Marketwatch,where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans an unprecedented glimpse intothe NBA point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was reallyhappening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with SportsMarketwatch! Initially, the NBA Edition of Sports Marketwatch will be a weeklycolumn published on Wednesdays, normally around 5PM, Eastern Time.
Thestaff at SportsInsights.com analyzes the marketplace, and especially the sportsbetting industry’s largest and most reputable sportsbooks, to identify whichgames the public is chasing and which ones the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take alook at what’s in store for tonight’s NBA games.
Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition
Our first Marketwatchinstallment didn’t turn out at all as we’d have liked. The Celtics decided toput on an absolute defensive clinic against an already light Bobcats offense,not allowing them more than 18 points in any quarter. The final score of 92-59came nowhere near the 10.5-point spread we had on Charlotte, and Boston hascontinued to obliterate all challengers. Sacramento came significantly closerto covering, but they still lost by nearly double the spread. Getting sevenpoints at youthful Oklahoma City, their defense simply couldn’t muster enoughstops, ultimately losing 102-89.
2009-10 NBA Games to Watch: 0-2,0%*
Sports Marketwatch 11/04/09– Games to Watch
New Jersey Nets +9.5 overDenver Nuggets
The Nuggets have started off hot this season, putting up loads of pointsbehind current NBA scoring leader Carmelo Anthony (34.5 ppg). All the moreimpressive, they’ve won easily without sharpshooter J.R. Smith, whose threatfrom behind the 3-point line freed things up last season for Chauncey Billups topenetrate and for Nene’s breakout year in the post. Tonight they’ll travel toNew Jersey, where the Nets will be without point guard Devin Harris and forwardYi Jianlian. All signs point to Denver running roughshod over the depletedNets, but that’s where we like to find value.
The Nuggets opened as 10-point favorites at both CRIS and Pinnacle, and thepublic is keen to New Jersey’s injury troubles. Denver is receiving 78% ofspread bets, as well as 92% of moneyline and 90% of parlay wagers. That’s anawful lot of support, but the bookmakers haven’t adjusted accordingly. Instead,we’ve seen solid reverse line movement across the board. Sports InsightsBetting Systems have also triggered a number of plays on New Jersey, notably aSmart Money from BetUS (+1.82 Units Won) and a Steam Move from BetOnline (+2.3Units Won). The Nets dropped a full point in many places, but you can stillfind them getting +9.5 at Olympic, SIA and BetPhoenix.
Houston Rockets +3 over Los AngelesLakers
Only a few months ago, this spread might have seemedsensible. The Rockets and Lakers were in an intensely competitive playoffseries. Yao and Ron Artest were playing efficient, hard-nosed basketball.Shane Battier was frustrating Kobe more than the Colorado court systems. AaronBrooks was breaking out, becoming a court leader and dynamic point guard inRafer Alston’s stead. And Trevor Ariza was missing clutch 3-pointers whenevercalled on to bail out Kobe or Pau Gasol. These days, things look to bedifferent. Ron Ron is is wearing gold and purple, Yao is out for the season,and Trevor Ariza is playing for the Rockets… only he’s shooting like SteveKerr from behind the arc (52.0%)! Confusing, to say the least.
The Lakers, on the heels of an overtime victory at Oklahoma City, opened atonly -2.5 at both CRIS and Pinnacle, likely due in large part to the absence ofAll-Star big man, Pau Gasol. The public, veritably salivating over having tolay so few points on the defending champions, are supporting Los Angeles to thetune of 83% of spread bets, 80% of moneyline bets and 84% of parlays. This istypically a sportsbook nightmare, as they want to minimize risk by putting halfthe money on each side and safely taking the juice. Instead of raising thespread to encourage bets on Houston, though, the spread dropped all the way downto -1.5 at a few books. It has leveled out at Los Angeles -2 at most placesnow, but not before we triggered a number of betting system plays on Houston.Most notably, we have a Smart Money play from early-season standout Olympic(+7.09 Units!), a Steam Move triggered by BetOnline (+2.3 Units) as well as aSquare Play. Square Plays fall on the games that are most lopsided in terms ofpublic betting percentage, and they are performing admirably on the season,going 8-2 for +5.3 Units. A close look at the market will find some extra valueat Bodog, where the line is at +2.5. You can even get +3 at SportsInteraction(SIA).
Houston +3 (SIA)
Games to Watch:0-2 = 0%
New Jersey +9.5
Houston +3 (SIA)
It should be an exciting night in the sports marketplace. Keep SportsMarketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for thelatest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll beback next Wednesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBAEdition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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