NBA Marketwatch Edition 4 2007-08
Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
3/14/2008 4:04 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBAEdition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fansunprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. Ifyou ever wanted to know what was really happening on thesportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with SportsMarketplace! Initially, the NBA Edition of the SportsMarketwatch will be a weekly column published on Friday,normally by around 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the linemanagers at some of the sports betting industry’s largestsportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and theSharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store fortoday’s NBA games.
Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition
Recapping Last Week’s NBA Action
Last Friday, the NBA Sports Marketwatch came back to earth,going 1-2. Denver continued its winning ways at home, beatingSan Antonio handily. However, our two “ugly” plays turned out tobe blowouts – going the “wrong” way. “Ugly” picks often getblown out badly (which distorts sports fans views a bit).However, more often than not (as in more than 50% of the time) –the “ugly plays” stay close enough to eke out wins ATS (againstthe spread).
2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 11-12-1 = 47.8%
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Sports Marketwatch 3/14/08 – Games to Watch
Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 over Houston Rockets
SportsInsights’ analytical tools indicate that “smart money” ison Charlotte. With only about 1 out of 3 bets coming in onCharlotte, the line has moved from Houston -12.5 to Houston-10.5. This is a sign that larger bets are coming in onCharlotte.
Larger bets typically mean “smarter money.” We hope the “bigboys” are right because this certainly looks like an ugly pick.Houston is the league’s hottest team, winning 20 in a row!Houston is now tied with San Antonio for the second-best recordin the Western Conference, a single game behind the Lakers’45-19 record.
Charlotte, on the other hand, is a lowly 6-23 on the road and isplaying .375 ball. This is definitely one of those games thathas the potential for a blowout. On the other hand, there lookslike there is value on Charlotte to stay within 10.5 of thehigh-flying Rockets. Take Charlotte +10.5 and sell the Rocketsat “a high” – and join the “smart money!”
Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 (Olympic)
Toronto Raptors +8 over Denver Nuggets
Our odds-maker contacts circled this game as another game with“smart money” taking the underdog. Toronto is gathering aboutone-third of the bets, but the line has moved from Denver -10all the way down to Denver -7.5. This indicates that large betsare coming in on Toronto and driving the line down.
Denver continues to have one of the best home records in theleague, with a strong 26-7 home performance. Toronto is a solidteam, with a better-than-.500 record – and has a very decent15-17 record on the road. We like taking a very competitiveToronto team plus 8 points – as does the “smart money.”
Toronto Raptors +8
Indiana Pacers +14.5 over Dallas Mavericks
Similar to the Charlotte selection (above), this has the makingsof being an ugly game. This is exactly the type of game that“value investors” seek out… Dallas has just 4 losses at homethis season (1 loss off of Utah’s best home record). Indianalooks like it will be overmatched – but 14.5 points is a bigspread for any game.
With less than one-third of the bets coming in on Indiana, theline has grown from Indiana +12.5 to Indiana +14.5. We likethose extra two points of value – in addition to “BettingAgainst the Public.”
Take the double-digit points (SIA currently has +14.5) and thebig dog at Dallas.
Indiana Pacers +14.5 (Sports Interaction)
Games to Watch: 11-12-1 = 47.8%
Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
Toronto Raptors +8
Indiana Pacers +14.5 (Sports Interaction)
It should be another exciting weekend in the sportsmarketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and yourbrowser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-timeupdates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the SportsMarketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com