NBA Marketwatch Edition 3 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
3/07/2008 4:44 PM EST
By The Team at

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fansunprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. Ifyou ever wanted to know what was really happening on thesportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with SportsMarketplace! Initially, the NBA Edition of the SportsMarketwatch will be a weekly column published on Friday,normally by around 5PM, Eastern Time.

The staff at speaks directly with the linemanagers at some of the sports betting industry’s largestsportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and theSharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store fortoday’s NBA games.

Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition

Recapping Last Week’s NBA Action

Last Friday, the NBA Sports Marketwatch swept the board, going3-0. Indiana and Washington won their games outright, wileSacramento stayed close enough to grab the cover. Our SportsMarketwatch philosophy of “value sports investing” should keepus on the profitable side in the long-run.

2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 10-10-1 = 50.0% 


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Sports Marketwatch 3/7/08 – Games to Watch

Denver Nuggets -2 over San Antonio Spurs

Our sports industry contacts tell us that “smart money” istaking the Nuggets at home in this marquee matchup.SportsInsights’ sports data verifies this market action. At thetime of this writing, about 40% of the bets are coming in onDenver (including Teasers and Parlays). Even so, the line hasmoved from Denver -1.5 to Denver -2.5. There are still some -2’sout there; grab it while you can.

San Antonio has won eleven straight games and is tied withDetroit for the second fewest losses in the league. Denver haswon just 5 of its last 10 – so we like buying Denver at a“recent low” and selling San Antonio at a “high.” The Nuggetsare a solid 24-7 at home! Give the points and take Denver athome.

Denver Nuggets -2

Miami Heat +5.5 over Golden State Warriors

Miami remains the worst team in the league, winning at a measly0.190 winning percentage. Golden State is a solid .600 team inthe playoff hunt. “Joe Public” hates the “ugly teams” and thiscreates value for the “sports investor.”

At the time of this writing, Miami was gathering less than 15%(!!) of the bets on this game. This is creating value. The lineopened at Miami +4.5 (at home) – but the steady barrage of betshas pushed the line to Miami +5.5. This will be one of those“ugly bets” you hate to take, but oftentimes, the “uglyducklings” hang around long enough to capture the bread. Takeyour time getting this bet down; the line may climb even higher.

Miami Heat  +6 (Bet at

Chicago Bulls +11.5 over Boston Celtics

Our previous selection (Miami +5.5) goes with the worst team inthe league to beat a solid team against the spread. In thisselection, we pick the Chicago Bulls to beat the spread versusthe best team in the league. Our mantra remains “value in thesports investing” arena and we believe that these types ofselections have some built-in value.

Who would normally want to take the worst team in the league? Orbet against the best team in the league? This is true – andSportsInsights’ betting percentages are great at highlightingthese public perceptions. In this matchup, more than two-thirdsof the bets are coming in on the high-flying Celtics. Thiscreates value on “betting against the public.” Take the Bullsand double-digit points.

Chicago Bulls +11.5

Games to Watch: 10-10-1 = 50.0%
Denver Nuggets -2
Miami Heat +6 (Bet at
Chicago Bulls +11.5

It should be another exciting weekend in the sportsmarketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and yourbrowser pointed to for the latest real-timeupdates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the SportsMarketwatch – NBA Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at