Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 2-1 (+1.57 units)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
After giving up 19 earned runs in his first four starts, Freddy Garcia has been moved to the bullpen, paving the way for rookie David Phelps to make his first career major league start tonight against Kansas City. In six appearances this season, Phelps has posted a 3.57 ERA in 17.2 innings of work.
The Royals, who have struggled to a 7-16 record, will counter with Danny Duffy, who is 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA so far this season.
New York opened as a -140 favorite at Olympic and is easily receiving the majority of public action. According to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, 83% of moneyline bets, 82% of runline bets and 89% of parlay wagers have already taken the Yankees.
The public betting chart below is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page to all Live Odds and All-Pro members and shows a breakdown of moneyline Betting Percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.
While the betting public is overwhelmingly on New York, the line has dropped to -133 at Olympic, indicating sharp money has come down on Kansas City.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the public Betting Percentages have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
At the time of publication, Sports Interaction is offering the best price for Kansas City at +130, but as always, be sure to shop for the best line before getting down on this game.
Game to Watch (2-1, +1.57 units)
Kansas City Royals +130 (SIA)
Enjoy the games!