Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 1-0 (+1.22 units)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Edition 1
Our first edition of MLB Marketwatch this season didn’t look too promising as our selection, Pittsburgh, faced a three-run deficit against Philadelphia heading into the bottom of the seventh inning.
However, the Pirates scored two in the seventh, added one in the eighth to tie the game and completed the comeback in the ninth with a walk-off single by Andrew McCutchen.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
In tonight’s series opener, Philadelphia hopes to get on track as Vance Worley (0-1, 3.75 ERA) takes on Joe Wieland (0-1, 10.80 ERA) in San Diego.
Philadelphia opened as a -134 favorite at Pinnacle and, not surprisingly, has been hammered by public bettors. According to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, 83% of moneyline bets and 75% of runline wagers have already taken the Phillies.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
Despite the lopsided betting data, the moneyline at Pinnacle has plunged from -134 to -111.
This drastic reverse-line movement is a clear indicator that sharp money has come down on San Diego and our MLB Betting Systems agree, triggering Steam Moves at both Pinnacle (+3.68 units) and ABC (+4.60 units) on the Padres.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting percentages and MLB Betting Systems have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
Bovada is offering the best price for San Diego at +107, but be sure shop for the best line and grab the best number available before getting down on this game.
After successfully fading Worley and Philadelphia in our most recent edition of MLB Marketwatch, we’re going back to well by betting against a huge public favorite, following the sharp money and grabbing the Padres as a home underdog..
Game to Watch (1-0, +1.22 units)
San Diego Padres +107 (Bovada)
Enjoy the games!