MLB Marketwatch Edition 1 2012

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2012 edition of MLB Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the MLB betting market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

In the rubber match of the season-opening series between the Phillies and Pirates, Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA in 2011) takes the ball in Pittsburgh against James McDonald (9-9, 4.21 ERA in 2011).

Both offenses have struggled mightily so far, scoring a grand total of four runs through the first two games of the series.

Philadelphia opened as a -130 favorite at Pinnacle and immediately received the majority of betting action. According to Sports Insights’ MLB Betting Trends, the Phillies, a perennial favorite of MLB bettors, are currently receiving 74% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA
PHI
PIT
74%
26%
85%
15%
82%
18%
38%
62%
64%
36%
65%
35%
88%
12%

Despite the one-sided betting, the line has dropped a bit to -128 at Pinnacle. This reverse-line movement is an indicator that sharp money has come down on Pittsburgh.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Live Odds and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting percentages and MLB Betting Systems have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At the time of publication, Pittsburgh is being offered anywhere from +110 to +122, so be sure to shop for the best line in order to maximize value this MLB season.

In our first edition of 2012, we’ll fade a big public favorite, follow the sharp money and take Pittsburgh as a home underdog.

Game to Watch (0-0)
Pittsburgh Pirates +122 (Sportsbook.com)

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