MLB Marketwatch Edition 6 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
4/24/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5 PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

Rainy weather put a damper on the hot start our 2009 season was off to. Our Minnesota-Boston game was rained out, and that left us with a single game to watch on Tuesday night. Rain and a constant heavy mist helped New York’s Andy Pettitte prolong Oakland’s offensive struggles. After seeing 20 home runs hit in the first four games at the new Yankee Stadium, there was only a single four-bagger hit Tuesday night. That honor went to New York’s Johnny Damon, and the Yankees closed it out with a 5-3 win.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 7-2, 77.7%, +6.61 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Philadelphia Phillies +132 over Florida Marlins

The Phillies have gotten out of the gate slower than expected while defending their 2008 World Series Championship. They are off to a 6-8 start, which puts them 4.5 games behind the early NL East-leading Florida Marlins. Florida was off to a scorching 11-1 start before being swept in a three-game series by perennial cellar-dweller Pittsburgh this week. The Phillies have been struggling offensively, even being no-hit through 7 and 2/3 innings on Thursday by Milwaukee’s Dave Bush before pinch-hitter Matt Stairs hit a solo home run. They will send veteran Brett Myers (1-1, 5.03 ERA) to the mound against the Marlins and their emerging ace Josh Johnson (2-0, 2.91 ERA).

The public is strongly behind the Marlins to rebound from their poor showing against the Pirates. Florida is receiving 66% of public moneyline bets, 91% of public spread bets, and 67% of parlay bets. Despite this heavy backing, the line had dropped from an opening at Olympic of Florida -145 to -130. It has since moved back to the Marlins as -145 favorites, and the line movement has triggered a Smart Money play by ABC. We’ll take the defending champs with the “plus money”.

Philadelphia Phillies +132 

Toronto Blue Jays +119 over Chicago White Sox

The Blue Jays have won their first five series of the 2009 season. They are the first team to accomplish that feat since 2001. This is a nice surprise for a team that has struggled to keep their starting pitchers healthy. Tonight’s starter Brian Tallet (0-0, 4.26 ERA) will make his second start of the season while filling in for the injured Jesse Litch. The Blue Jays have the league’s strongest offense so far this season with a team .291 batting average and a MLB-high 104 runs scored. The White Sox return to US Cellular field after a 5-4 road trip, including losing two of three at Baltimore in their last series. They’ll send younger hurler Gavin Floyd (2-1, 4.74 ERA) to the mound to try to cool off the Toronto bats.

The White Sox are receiving two-thirds of public moneyline bets, to go along with 70% of spread and 64% of parlay wagers. Chicago opened as -145 favorites at Olympic, and despite the large backing the line has dropped to Chicago -125. We like the league’s hottest offense heading to a hitters’ park, and it has warmed up recently in Chicago, which looks good for the hitters. This game also fits into our MLB and Betting Against the Public article.

Toronto Blue Jays +119