MLB Marketwatch Edition 5 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition

4/21/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5 PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

We continued on our early roll going 2-0 on Friday to push our record to 7-1 on the 2009 season. Add in the “plus money” for our plays and we are up an outstanding +7.61 units through two weeks. The Reds were on their way to being shut out before Ramon Hernandez took Astros closer Jose Valverde out of the park for a two-run homer in the top of ninth. With a 2-1 lead, Cincinnati closer Francisco Cordero induced a double play to get out of trouble and close out the game. San Francisco’s young southpaw Jonathan Sanchez combined with three relievers for a three-hit shutout against the Diamondbacks, and two runs from the Giants offense was enough for the win.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 7-1, 87.5%, +7.61 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Oakland Athletics +195 over New York Yankees

The Athletics and Yankees will start a rain-shortened two-game series Tuesday night, after Monday’s game was postponed until later in the season. It will mark Jason Giambi’s return to New York after signing with Oakland in the offseason. Giambi could enjoy his return if trends continue at the new Yankee Stadium, where 20 home runs were hit in four games of the new venue’s opening series. A pair of lefties will square off with the A’s sending youngster Dana Eveland (0-0, 6.75 ERA) up against Yankee veteran Andy Pettitte (1-0, 2.51).

Not surprisingly, the Yankees are huge favorites as the line opened at New York -275 at Olympic. The Yankees are currently -200 favorites despite a huge public backing. New York is garnering 75% of moneyline wagers from the public to go along with 81% of spread bets and 88% of parlay plays. We’ve seen multiple Sports Insights Betting System plays triggered on Oakland, including a Steam Move from Pinnacle (30-18, +10.9 units). This looks like great value against a New York team that hasn’t started as strong as many predicted they would. The play also fits in with our MLB and Betting Against the Public research. We’ll take the huge “plus money”, especially with a line of Oakland +195 out there at SIA.

Oakland Athletics +195 (SIA)

Minnesota Twins +150 over Boston Red Sox

The Twins and Red Sox are squaring off with each team coming off series sweeps over the weekend. Minnesota took all three games from AL West favorite Los Angeles over the weekend, in which they were able to score 23 runs. The Twins will send Scott Baker to the mound coming off a rough start in his season debut last Wednesday, in which he surrendered four home runs. Minnesota slugger Justin Morneu hit .500 against the Red Sox last season and has fared well against Boston starter Time Wakefield (1-1, 3.00 ERA) in the past. Wakefield  took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his previous start against Oakland.

The public really likes the Boston knuckle-baller coming off his great last start. The Red Sox are being backed by 59% of public moneyline bets, 85% of public spread bets, and 80% of parlay bets. The line has actually moved in the other direction at Olympic, which opened at Boston -170, but is currently at -165. This line movement triggered a Smart Money play at (4-1, +4.33 units). We’re going to follow it and take the “plus money”.

Minnesota Twins +150 



Games to Watch (7-1, +7.61 units)
Oakland Athletics +195 (SIA)

Minnesota Twins +150

It should be another exciting week in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at