MLB Marketwatch Edition 43 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
9/4/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

In Tuesday’s first game, a fourth-inning RBI double by Ryan Howard was enough for the Phillies and Cole Hamels to secure a 1-0 victory over the Giants. In our second game, the Reds got to Pirates starter Charlie Morton early, scoring four runs in the first inning. Catcher Craig Tatum led the offensive explosion, going two-for-four at the dish with four RBI in Cincinnati’s 11-4 win over Pittsburgh. Unfortunately for Marketwatch, we had the Giants and Pirates in our two games, posting a disappointing 0-2 record for the day.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 39-43, 47.6%, +10.38 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Cincinnati Reds +172  over Atlanta Braves

In tonight’s first game, the Cincinnati Reds send starter Bronson Arroyo (11-12, 4.35 ERA) to the mound to take on Derek Lowe (13-8, 4.38 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves. Arroyo, who got off to a slow start this season, has come on strong recently, giving up three runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. Lowe has been equally impressive lately, winning eight of his last ten starts for the Braves. Reds second baseman and RBI leader Brandon Phillips, who is batting .404 in his last 11 games, is hitless in nine career at-bats against Lowe.

Atlanta opened as -185 favorites at CRIS and has since dropped to -181. The public is heavily behind the favorites with 96% of spread bets, 77% of moneyline bets and 85% of parlay bets currently backing the Braves. The line has moved in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, suggesting there could be some sharp money backing the Reds. We’re going against the heavy public favorite and will take Cincinnati in this game.

Cincinnati Reds +172 (Matchbook)

Houston Astros +120 over Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia currently enjoys an 8.5-game lead in the NL East and will try to widen that gap behind starter Cliff Lee (12-10, 2.83 ERA) tonight. Lee, who is 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA since being acquired by the Phillies, struggled in his last start, giving up six earned runs in five innings of work. Houston will counter with their own left-handed ace, Wandy Rodriguez (12-9, 2.93 ERA). Rodriguez is 7-3 with a 2.54 ERA since June 21 and has given up one run or fewer in 10 of his last 13 starts.

Philadelphia opened as -150 favorites at CRIS and has shrunk to -130. This significant line movement suggests that the public is heavily backing Houston. However, the Phillies are currently garnering 97% of spread bets, 87% of moneyline bets and 86% of parlay wagers. This reverse-line movement hints that sharp money is behind the Astros. We also like that Matchbook and Pinnacle, who combined are + 24.1 units on the season, triggered Steam Moves on Houston earlier today. In this game, we are going against the public and will take the home team receiving plus money.

Houston Astros +120

Games to Watch (39-43, +10.38 units)
Cincinnati  +172 (Matchbook)
Houston +120

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com