MLB Marketwatch Edition 4 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition

4/17/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5 PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

Two extra-inning wins on Tuesday extended our great start to the 2009 season here at MLB Sports Marketwatch. The Athletics scored five runs in the first inning of Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka, but couldn’t get anything for the next 10 innings of the Red Sox bullpen. In the 12th, Oakland’s Travis Buck beat out in infield single with the bases loaded and two outs to drive in the winning run. Arizona’s Justin Upton broke an 0-for-15 slump with a single in the 10th inning against St. Louis, then moved to third with two outs after a sacrifice and fielder’s choice. Eric Byrnes then broke a 1-for-17 slump with a RBI single for the extra-inning win. It pushed our record to 5-1 so far in 2009.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 5-1, 75%, +4.81 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Cincinnati Reds +140 over Houston Astros

Cincinnati was picked by many pundits as a sleeper to contend in the NL in 2009, but a 4-4 start hasn’t gotten them off to quite the start they had hoped for. The Reds missed a chance at a sweep on Wednesday against Milwaukee when they allowed the Brewers to score five runs in the bottom of the sixth of what had been a tied game. Cincinnati will send youngster Johnny Cueto (0-1, 6.00 ERA) to the mound against Houston and ace Roy Oswalt (0-2, 6.23). Cueto struck out nine hitters over six innings in his previous start against Pittsburgh, while Oswalt gave up six runs over six innings against St. Louis.

The public is solidly behind the Astros and ace Oswalt, with 78% of public spread bets and 84% of runline bets. Despite this we can see a huge movement in the moneyline in the other direction. Houston opened as -165 favorites at Olympic, but the are currently at -145. That combination has produced multiple Sports Insights Betting System plays on the Reds, including a Steam Move from Pinnacle (20-13, +5.6 units).

Cincinnati Reds +140 (SIA)

San Francisco Giants +140 over Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco is returning home after struggling mightily on a six-game road trip being swept by the Padres and Dodgers. Young southpaw Jonathan Sanchez will toe the rubber for the Giants. Sanchez has shown inconsistency during his short career, and his first start was a valley in that roller coaster as he allowed five runs in 4.2 innings. Arizona has shown it’s ability to hit over the past two games by scoring seven runs in each after having problems scoring runs to start the season. That’s good news for starter Dan Haren (0-2, 2.08 ERA), who has been terrific so far this season, but has yet to earn a win.

Haren and the Diamondbacks are being heavily supported on the road against an NL West rival. Arizona is receiving 80% of public moneyline bets and 87% of parlay bets. This has caused a slight movement, but not to the level you would expect. The line opened at Arizona -140, and the Diamondbacks are currently -145 favorites. A Smart Money was triggered on the Giants at The Pig, and this game also fits into our MLB and Betting Against the Public article. We’ll take the home dog with the “plus money.”

San Francisco Giants +140 (SIA)
Games to Watch (5-1, +4.81 units)
Cincinnati Reds +140 (SIA)
San Francisco Giants +140 (SIA)

It should be another exciting week in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at