MLB Marketwatch Edition 39 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition

8/21/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

In Tuesday’s first game, a 4-run 8th inning helped the Tigers, and Marketwatch, overcome a strong outing by Mariners starter Felix Hernandez and score a 5-3 victory. We decided to swing for the fences in our second game, taking Cincinnati at +205 over San Francisco and reigning NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. The Reds gave Marketwatch hope by getting to Lincecum early and jumping out to a 5-1 lead. But the Giants tied the game in the 6th inning and ultimately sent it to extras, where San Francisco scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning en route to an 8-5 victory. Even though we lost our upset special in extra innings, Marketwatch went 1-1 on the day and added another .11 units to our season total.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 38-36, 51.4%, +15.53 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Boston Red Sox +106 over New York Yankees

New York heads into Fenway Park tonight with a 6.5 game lead over Boston in the AL East. The Red Sox, who were swept by the Yankees a couple of weeks ago in New York, are happy to see the Bronx Bombers back in Boston, where the Sox are 7-0 against their arch rivals so far this season. Boston looks to Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22 ERA) to calm the Yankee bats and help move the Sox one game closer to the division leaders. Penny has faced New York once this season, throwing six scoreless innings in a June 11 win at Fenway. The Yankees counter with Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA), who hasn’t given more than two runs in any of his last four starts.

New York opened as -135 favorites at CRIS and currently sit at -122. The betting percentages are fairly even, with 52% of moneyline bets behind the Yankees and 55% of parlay wagers backing the Red Sox. Although there is not a heavy public favorite in this game, we always like backing underdogs playing at home. A steam move was triggered at Pinnacle, who are +33.81 units on the season, giving us one more reason to take the Sox in tonight’s AL East showdown.

Boston Red Sox +106 (Matchbook)

Texas Rangers +163 over Tampa Bay Rays

In our second game, Texas takes on Tampa Bay in a battle of AL Wild Card contenders. The Rangers currently trail the Red Sox by one game, while the Rays sit four games back. Tampa Bay is winless in three games against Texas this season and send Scott Kazmir (7-7, 6.36 ERA) to the mound tonight to take on a Rangers lineup that ranks 2nd in the AL in home runs. Kazmir got off to a rough start this season, but is 3-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last four starts. Dustin Nippert (4-1, 3.52 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise for Texas and will get the start tonight at Tropicana Field. Nippert has been great since the All-Star break, posting a 4-1 record, with a 2.61 ERA in eight appearances, four of which were starts.

Tampa Bay opened at -146 and have grown to -170 favorites at Pinnacle. The public is solidly behind the favorite, with 74% of runline bets, 70% of moneyline bets and 63% of parlay wagers currently backing the Rays. Two steam moves, from sportsbooks with a combined record of -36.88 units, were triggered backing Tampa Bay. Because these books have a losing record this season, we’re going against the moves, as well as the public, and will take Texas in this game.

Texas Rangers +163 (Pinnacle)

Games to Watch (38-36, +15.53 units)
Boston Red Sox +106 (Matchbook)
Texas Rangers +163 (Pinnacle)

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at