8/18/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Two very different games provided the same results for our last issue on MLB Marketwatch. In the National League, the Brewers put eight runs on the board in the first inning, and a win over the Astros was never in doubt. So the first loss was a blowout, but our second game was an absolute heartbreaker. The Royals and Tigers matchup saw two of this season’s best starting pitchers go head-to-head. Zack Greinke and Jarrod Washburn obliged with gems for both sides, but it came down to the bullpens. The Tigers prevailed with a ninth-inning homer from Brandon Inge, which also handed us an 0-2 edition.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 37-35, 51.4%, +15.42 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Detroit Tigers +111 over Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez (12-4, 2.72 ERA) has been dominant on the road this season, and that success has him on the Cy Young radar. He has also had success against the Tigers, winning his last five starts against the AL Central leaders. Two of the Tiger hitters have had success against “King Felix” despite his performance against the team. Curtis Granderson has a .409 average against the southpaw, while Placido Polanco is hitting an even .400. Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera has also done well against Hernandez (4-8 in his career), and he has also had great success against the Mariners this season, batting .455. Rick Porcello (10-7, 4.34) will take the mound for the Motor City club fresh off a five-game suspension. The rookie was suspended for beaning Boston’s Kevin Youkilis, which initiated a bench-clearing brawl between the clubs.
The Mariners opened as -125 favorites at Olympic behind their ace starter, and the moneyline bets have been pretty evenly split. Seattle is being backed by 52% of the moneyline wagers, but they are also getting 62% of runline bets. Despite the close split in wagers, the line has actually dropped to Seattle -120. That isn’t much movement, but the direction combined with the percentages means some money behind the Tigers. We have also seen a Steam Move triggered on Detroit by Bet Jamaica (74-46, +17.1 units). We like home dogs at the Marketwatch, especially one that is a division leader, so we’ll take Detroit and hope they can break the streak against “King Felix”.
Detroit Tigers +111
Cincinnati Reds +210 over San Francisco Giants
Our second highlighted game features a pair of starting pitchers that were once their orginazation’s “Next Big Thing”. The two former top prospects have been night-and-day at the Major League level. For San Francisco, Tim Lincecum (12-3, 2.19 ERA) has turned into one of MLB’s best starters, even winning the 2008 NL Cy Young Award. He currently has the most strikeouts and lowest ERA in the majors, while also throwing four complete games. On the other side, Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey (2-4, 7.48) has fizzled when he takes the mound for the big league club. Bailey has moved up-and-down from Cincinnati to the Reds’ minor league system while trying to break through with his potential. He is making his first start since being hit with an Albert Pujols linedrive during the first inning of his previous start.
The Giants opened as -245 favorites at CRIS, and the line has seen very little movement despite San Francisco receiving a huge split in the betting percentages. The lure of the ace is drawing 81% of moneyline wagers, 84% of runline bets, and 91% of parlays. Even with this huge disparity, the line is still at San Francisco -245. This is an indication of some sharp bettors behind the Reds, and there have been multiple Smart Money plays from books with positive units won. As said before, we like homedogs, but we’ll admit it takes ice in your veins to go against a stud like Lincecum. Is it just me, or is it cold in here?
Cincinnati Reds +210 (Bodog)
Games to Watch (37-35, +15.42 units)
Detroit Tigers +111
Cincinnati Reds +210 (Bodog)
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com