8/7/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
After a rare 0-1 performance last Friday, Marketwatch went 1-1 on Tuesday and added another 0.3 units to our season total. In our first game, Colorado brought out the bats against Philadelphia and Jamie Moyer, scoring four runs in the 6th inning en route to an 8-3 victory. Jason Hammel pitched 6.2 solid innings and notched his sixth victory of the season for the Rockies. In game two, Minnesota’s Carlos Gomez provided the offense with three hits, including a 3-run homerun, and four RBI. That was plenty of support for Scott Baker, who scattered three hits in seven scoreless innings for the Twins.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 35-31, 53.0%, +16.99 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Atlanta Braves +120 over Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers, losers of seven of their last eleven games, hope to ride the momentum of yesterday’s walk-off win as they face the Braves in the second game of a four game series tonight. Los Angeles sends Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.82 ERA) to the mound to take on Atlanta and Jair Jurrjens (9-8, 2.85 ERA). Although Jurrjens has pitched very well all season, the Braves’ offense has struggled to support him. Putting runs on the board could once again be a tough task for the Braves after being held scoreless and managing only two hits in five innings against Billingsley on Sunday.
Los Angeles opened as -128 favorites at Pinnacle and currently sit at -127. The public is heavily behind the Dodgers with 81% of runline bets, 77% of moneyline bets and 72% of parlay wagers currently on Los Angeles. A Smart Money play was triggered at CRIS (+8.93 units) and could explain why there has been little line movement with such one-sided betting percentages.
Atlanta Braves +120
Texas Rangers +123 over Los Angeles Angels
After last night’s win, Texas finds themselves only 4.5 games back of AL West leading Los Angeles and only 2 games back of AL Wild Card leading Boston. The Rangers have had a lot of success against the Angels so far this season, winning seven of the first nine games these two teams have played. Scott Feldman (10-4, 3.91 ERA) will start tonight and attempt to pull Texas one-game closer to Los Angeles in the AL West standings. Feldman has been stellar against the Angels this season, going 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two outings. Los Angeles will counter with Joe Saunders (9-6, 5.07 ERA) as they try to put some distance between themselves and second place Texas. Saunders, who is 1-2 with an 8.84 ERA in his last seven starts, is 0-2 with a 15.00 ERA against the Rangers in 2009.
Los Angeles opened as -145 favorites at CRIS and have since moved to -131, even though the public is solidly backing the Angels. Los Angeles is currently receiving 64% of runline bets, 69% of moneyline bets and 66% of parlay wagers, yet the line has shrunk since opening. This reverse-line movement triggered a Smart Money play at Pinnacle (+1.56 units) and suggests sharp money is behind the Rangers.
Texas Rangers +123
Games to Watch (35-31, +16.99 units)
Atlanta Braves +120
Texas Rangers +123
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com