8/4/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Due to a last minute trade before Friday’s deadline, we only had a single game in our past Marketwatch. That proved to be too bad for our bottom line. In our only play remaining the Rangers had a 5-3 lead when the game was delayed for over two hours. After the stoppage, Texas was able to hold on for a 5-4 win to hand us a loss. Just for the record, our other planned game would have worked out as the White Sox defeated the Yankees 10-5.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 34-30, 53.1%, +16.69 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Colorado Rockies +130 over Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies struggled at home for the first half of the season, but something clicked in the month of July as the team won 14 of 17 at Citizens Bank Park. They return to the City of Brotherly Love from a seven-game road trip in which they went 3-4 while hitting .205 as a team. They hope some home cooking will return them to their streaking ways. They’ll send the surging Jamie Moyer (10-7, 5.32 ERA) to the mound. Moyer is 6-1 with a 3.51 ERA in his previous seven starts. The Rockies will counter with road warrior Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66). Hammel has been Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde in his road/home splits this season. At home he has a 7.20 ERA, while away from Coors Field he is 4-3 with a 2.67 ERA. The Rockies have won four straight road games, thanks in part to Troy Tulowitzki’s hot bat (.517 avg, 12 RBIs in previous nine games.)
The Phillies opened as -145 home favorites at Olympic, and the public is solidly behind them. The defending champs are garnering 71% of moneyline bets to go along with 77% of runline and 76% of parlay wagers. Despite these percentages, the line has fallen to Philadelphia -138. With those percentages, even that slight drop can represent some sharp money behind the Rocks. The percentages also fit in with our MLB Betting Against the Public research earlier in the season.
Colorado Rockies +130
Cleveland Indians +137 over Minnesota Twins
The Indians have had a busy trading season, but it wasn’t the one the club hoped for in Spring. They sent their top pitcher (reigning AL Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee) and top hitter (slugging catcher/first baseman, Victor Martinez) packing before last week’s trading deadline. They also traded regulars Mark DeRosa, Ben Francisco, Ryan Garko, and reliever Rafael Betancourt. The roster looks a lot different than it did in early April. Despite this, they have played better over the last couple of weeks, going 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Tribe will start rookie David Huff (5-5, 6.39 ERA) against Minnesota’s Scott Baker (8-7, 4.86). The Twins are coming off a series in which they were swept at home by the Los Angeles Angels. The Twinkies were outscored by 20 runs in the three-game set, but they will look to get back on track behind the offensive trio of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Jason Kubel.
The Twins opened as -125 road favorites at Olympic, and the line is climbing further up thanks to the public betting percentages. Minnesota is garnering 79% of the public moneyline wagers, as well as 63% of runline and 81% of parlay bets. Those numbers have pushed the line to its current spot at Minnesota -143. These line movements in the marketplace and percentages have triggered a few plays from Sports Insights Betting Systems, including a Smart Money play from CRIS (+6 units won.) It also qualifies under our MLB Betting Against the Public research. We’ll take the home dog that’s played better of late.
Cleveland Indians +137
Games to Watch (34-30, +16.69 units)
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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