7/28/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
After a string of 1-1 efforts, MarketWatch returned to glory Friday by hitting both of its picks and adding 2.86 units to its season total. Our first game saw both Matt Garza and Roy Halladay give up only two runs through nine innings before Evan Longoria hit a two-run double in the top of the tenth to give the Rays a 4-2 lead. Tampa Bay’s J.P. Howell came in to pitch a perfect bottom half, sealing the victory for the Rays and MarketWatch. In game two, Florida’s Josh Johnson earned his 9th win of the season after Jeremy Hermida’s tie-breaking RBI single in the seventh inning that put the Marlins ahead of the Dodgers for good.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 33-28, 54.1%, +17.68 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Philadephia Phillies +101 over Arizona Diamondbacks
Today’s slate of games is loaded with stellar pitching matchups, including a contest between last year’s World Series MVP Cole Hamels and Dan Haren, the current NL leader in ERA. Although Hamels struggled early in the season, he has a 3.00 ERA in two starts since the All-Star break and leads a white hot Phillies team that has won eight of their last ten games. Haren has been flat out dominant for Arizona this year, posting a 10-5 record while leading the major leagues with an opponents’ batting average of .194. With these two elite pitchers squaring off, give the edge to Philadelphia and the NL’s most prolific offense in this game.
Arizona opened as -140 favorites at CRIS and has made a move to -112. The public has backed Philadelphia with 68% of moneyline bets and 63% of parlay wagers, causing the significant line movement. We usually bet against public favorites, but are making an exception for this game. A Steam Move was triggered at BetUS, who are +10.10 units this season, giving us the confidence to take the Phillies.
Philadelphia +101 (Catalina/VegasVic)
Toronto Blue Jays +115 over Seattle Mariners
After winning last night’s game in Seattle, the Blue Jays and rookie Marc Rzepczynski (1-2, 2.82 ERA) take on the Mariners and veteran Jarrod Washburn (8-6, 2.72 ERA). Washburn has been the subject of trade rumors for weeks and could possibly be taking the mound in Seattle tonight for the final time as a member of the Mariners. Rzepczynski lacks experience with only four career starts, but brings an offense with him that put up eleven runs against Seattle, including seven earned against Felix Hernandez, in yesterday’s win. Conversely, the Mariners’ anemic offense has scored over 100 runs fewer than the Jays so far in 2009, so we’ll take Toronto and the plus money this game.
Since opening as -115 favorites at CRIS, the public has backed Seattle with 84% of the moneyline bets and 81% of the parlay wagers, pushing the line to -120. With such a large percentage of bets on Seattle, we have no problem going against the public and taking Toronto. This game has also triggered a Steam Move at Pinnacle, who are +46.47 units this season, giving us one more reason to back Toronto.
Toronto +115 (Matchbook)
Games to Watch (33-28, +17.68 units)
Tampa Bay +101
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com