7/24/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Marketwatch followed up last Friday’s 1-1 record with another split on Tuesday. The Rangers were able to jump on Josh Beckett early en route to a 4-2 victory in Texas. Hank Blalock led the Rangers, going 2 for 3 with two RBIs, while Tommy Hunter held the Red Sox to only one run over six innings. Our second game had the Cubs and Phillies knotted at one heading into the home half of the 13th inning. All hope of a 2-0 day for Marketwatch was lost when Jayson Werth connected with a Jeff Samardzija offering for a three-run walk-off homerun. Even with the split, we still earned a profit and added .57 units to our season total.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 31-28, 52.5%, +14.82 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Tampa Bay +145 over Toronto Blue Jays
With rumors swirling of a possible trade, Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay takes the mound in what could be his last start at the Rodgers Centre in Toronto. Though it is always tough to pick against Doc Halladay, we like the Rays and their considerable plus money. Tampa Bay has had success against Halladay this season, handing him his only two losses in his last 14 starts. As a team, the Rays have won five out of six games against the Blue Jays this year, including taking two of three in Toronto in June. Matt Garza, who gets the start tonight for Tampa Bay, allowed only one run in seven innings in his only start in Toronto earlier this season.
Toronto opened as -140 favorites at CRIS and has since grown to -152. The public has come out in droves to back Halladay with 86% of moneyline bets and 87% of parlay wagers currently on the Jays. This, in turn, has pushed Tampa Bay’s odds to around +140 at most sportsbooks and triggered a Smart Money play at Phoenix, which has been profitable this season. In fact, the public money is so one-sided that this game is a prime candidate for one ofSportsInsights.com’s square plays that will be released by 6 p.m. EST.
Tampa Bay +145 (SIA)
Florida Marlins +141 over Los Angeles Dodgers
Coming off a three-game sweep of San Diego, the Marlins find themselves only 3.5 games behind NL Wild Card leading Colorado. Florida turns to All-Star Josh Johnson (8-2, 2.74 ERA) as they try to push their current win-streak to four. Johnson has been very impressive all season, including 16 consecutive starts yielding three runs or fewer. But beating the Dodgers in Los Angeles won’t be easy as they send their own young All-Star, Clayton Kershaw, to the mound. Kershaw is 5-0 in his last seven starts with a 0.63 ERA over that span.
Los Angeles opened as -160 favorites at CRIS and now sit at -151. This reverse line movement hints that the public might be backing Florida. On the contrary, 72% of moneyline bets, 78% of parlay wagers and 56% of runline bets are currently on the Dodgers. We like to see this reverse-line movement because it suggests that considerable sharp money has been placed on Florida. Just like our first game, we’re going against the heavy public favorite and are taking the Marlins.
Florida +141 (Matchbook)
Games to Watch (31-28, +14.82 units)
Tampa Bay +145
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com