7/17/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Following a 2-0 start to the week, Marketwatch had an off day Friday, missing both of its picks. The Rangers got a solid outing from Scott Feldman, who gave up only two runs in 6.2 innings of work. Texas’ offense helped Feldman pick up his 8th win of the year by pounding out three home runs, including a two-run shot by Nelson Cruz in the 8th, spotting the Rangers bullpen a four run lead. In our second game, the Rays’ Jeff Niemann scattered seven hits while throwing a complete game shutout to lock down the listless Athletics.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 29-26, 52.7%, +14.18 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Boston Red Sox +107 over Toronto Blue Jays
The Red Sox kick off the second half of the season against their AL East rival Blue Jays. After a strong start to the year, the Jays have lost 12 of their last 15 games and now find themselves 11 games behind the division leading Red Sox. Young righty Clay Buchholz will make his first appearance for the Sox tonight, who lead the season series 4-2. Buchholz has been solid in 2009 for Triple-A Pawtucket, going 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA. The Blue Jays will counter with Ricky Romero, who struggled in his only start against Boston, giving up five runs in four innings of an 8-2 loss on May 31.
Toronto opened as -130 favorites at CRIS and has since made a move to -117, with 54% of the moneyline bets, 63% of the parlay wagers and 56% of the over/under bets on the Red Sox. We’ve seen a Steam Move triggered by Pinnacle, who has a record of +40.11 units so far this season. Even with a small amount of plus money this game, we have confidence in Buchholz and have to pay attention when a book with Pinnacle’s record triggers a move.
Boston Red Sox +107 (Matchbook)
Baltimore Orioles +153 over Chicago White Sox
In tonight’s match-up, the White Sox are at home, have a better record than Toronto and send a pitcher to the mound with an ERA almost two runs better than their opponents’. As you can expect, most of the betting public has taken this into consideration as most of the money is going down on the White Sox.
Chicago opened as -170 favorites at CRIS and are currently getting 79% of the moneyline bets, as well as 92% of parlay wagers. With this high betting percentage on Chicago, you’d expect to see the line grow, but on the contrary, it has shrunk to -166. We like to see this kind of reverse line movement, as well as the Steam Move that was triggered by 5Dimes, which has a very solid record of +13.78 units. One of our basic strategies at SportsInsights is to bet against the public, so we’re taking the Orioles.
Baltimore Orioles +153 (Pinnacle)
Games to Watch (29-26, +14.18 units)
Boston Red Sox +107
Baltimore Orioles +153
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com