MLB Marketwatch Edition 22 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition

6/19/2009  5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

For the first time in a while, the Marketwatch failed to produce a profit by going 0-2 last Friday. The Pirates were dominated by a Twins team that must really enjoy playing NL teams. Minnesota owns a 47-14 record against the senior circuit since 2006. The Twinkies were led by the AL’s reigning batting champ Joe Mauer, who had his second four-hit game of the season. In our second game, the Rangers jumped on the Astros by scoring in each of the first four innings to take a 6-0 lead. That was more than enough for surging starter Kevin Millwood, who only allowed a single run in seven innings of work. The Texas bullpen closed out the game and handed us our 0-2 day.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 23-18, 56.1%, +13.76 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Atlanta Braves +140 over Boston Red Sox (917)

Last season was only the second time in which the Braves and Red Sox didn’t square off in a series since interleague play began. They resume the rivalry of original Bean town teams tonight with a face-off between Japanese starting pitchers. The Braves’ Kenshin Kawakami came in under the radar this off-season when compared to fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka’s arrival before the 2007 season. Dice-K lived up to the hype during his first two seasons, even going 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008. This season has been quite the opposite, as Matsuzaka (1-4, 7.55 ERA) has dealt with injuries and struggled when healthy. Kawakami (3-6, 4.54) had a couple of rough starts early in the season, but he has been solid for Atlanta in the 4th spot of the rotation. His main problem has been efficiency, as he has only lasted more than six innings twice in 12 starts. That could be a problem with the patient lineup fielded by Boston, including ML’s on-base-percentage leader Kevin Youkilis (.454 OBP). Atlanta has struggled offensively most of the season, and they recently acquired former All-Start Nate McLouth in an attempt to add some offense. McLouth did just that with a home run and four RBIs in Thursday’s 7-0 win against Cincinnati. The team is hoping that is the spark needed to turn it around

The Red Sox own the major league’s best home record at 23-9, and the public is jumping on Boston in Fenway. Despite Matsuzaka’s struggles, the public is backing the Sox with 87% of public moneyline bets. Add in 93% of runline bets and 80% of parlay wagers, and Boston is easily the betting public’s choice. Even with this support, the line has seen very little movement. The Red Sox opened as -145 favorites at Olympic, and has only inched up to Boston -150. This could be an indication of some sharp players backing Atlanta, and we have seen a Smart Money play triggered on the Braves at BetOnline (+7.55 Units). We’ll take that line against a struggling pitcher, who has shown very little signs of turning things around. The Martketwatch will be doing the Tomahawk Chop during tonight’s set of games.

Atlanta Braves +140 (Bet Phoenix)

Los Angeles Dodgers +100 over Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (925)

It’s the battle for the City of Angels. Actually the game is taking place in Anaheim, so maybe that doesn’t work. It’s the battle for the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area. Anyway, the Dodgers still have the major’s top record, but the Angels enter the showdown as the hotter team. They have won six straight games, sweeps over San Diego and San Francisco, while dealing with injuries to sluggers Vladimir Geurrero, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu. Guerrero and Hunter are expected to return on Friday, but Abreu is still listed as day-to-day. The key to the Angels’ streak was pitching, with a starters’ ERA of 2.83 during those six wins. They will send Joe Saunders (7-4, 3.66 ERA) to the mound in hopes of winning his second straight start. On the other side, the Dodgers will have ace Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.72) toe the rubber, as he tries to win his fourth consecutive start for the second time this season. He will also seek to become the NL’s first 10-game winner.

Tonight’s interleague matchups haven’t given us many interesting “plus money” odds to choose from. Getting the team with the league’s best record at even money with their ace on the mound is good enough for us. The public isn’t thinking the same way with the Angels drawing 59% of their moneyline wagers. Some books haven’t seen much movement in the line, which opened at most books with either the Dodgers as slight favorites or at even odds. Now the line has moved to the Angels as slight favorites. You can find even money on the Dodgers, and even some “plus money” at some betting exchanges.

Los Angeles Dodgers +100 (Pinnacle)

Games to Watch (23-18, +13.76 units)
Atlanta Braves +140 (Bet Phoenix)
Los Angeles Dodgers +100 (Pinnacle)

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com

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