MLB Marketwatch Edition 2 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition

4/10/2009 5:30 PM EST
By The Team at

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5 PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

We were able to win our first pair of games for 2009 to start the season 2-0. The Astros squeaked out an extra inning win over the Cubs on a broken bat single by reserve infielder Jeff Keppinger. The Athletics banged out 16 hits and were able to take an early-season game from the AL West favorite Angels.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 2-0, 100%, +2.08 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Baltimore Orioles +115 over Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are coming off an impressive series win over the Red Sox after taking the final two games against Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Tampa Bay’s offense has gotten off to a solid start, and they look like they could have the best rotation in the AL East again this season. They will send Any Sonnanstine to the mound on Friday. He has a 2-2 record and 6.67 ERA in five career starts versus Baltimore. The Orioles surprised most people by taking two out of three in their opening series against the revamped Yankees. Orioles send southpaw Mark Hendrickson up against the Rays, against which he has a 4.83 ERA in seven career starts.

The Rays opened as -127 favorites at Olympic, and the line has seen very little movement during the course of action as it currently sits at Tampa Bay -125. This non-movement is surprising since the Rays are receiving 74% of the public’s moneyline wagers on top of being included in 84% of parlay bets. The Orioles have received multiple Betting System played from Sports Insights, including a Smart Money play triggered by CanBet (4-1, +2.66 units). Also with the Orioles only receiving 26% of public bets at home, this play fits in with SI’s research for MLB and Betting Against the Public.

Baltimore Orioles +115

Boston Red Sox +100 over Los Angeles Angels

The Red Sox make the cross-country trip to Los Angeles to take on the Angels, whom they have had success against over the past few seasons. They will send 42-year-old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to the mound against the Angels. Jered Weaver, who is 1-2 with a 5.35 ERA in six starts against Boston, gets the start in this emotional game for the Angels. Los Angeles will be playing with heavy hearts after rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed in a car accident early Thursday morning.

The Red Sox opened as -107 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has moved to Los Angeles -108 thanks to heavy public backing, 72% of public moneyline bets. Boston is now getting even money at Pinnacle, which looks like a great value for a strong team. The Red Sox also fit in with SI’s research for MLB and Betting Against the Public.

Boston Red Sox +100 (Pinnacle)


Games to Watch (2-0, +2.08 units)
Baltimore Orioles +115
Boston Red Sox +100 (Pinnacle)

It should be another exciting week in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at