6/09/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Marketwatch seems to be involved in at least one game with late-inning drama each issue, and Brad Lidge’s struggles bit us again. This time he kept us from a 2-0 feature, which still allows our split to turn a profit with MLB’s underdog lines. Lidge had retired his first two batters with a one-run lead in the ninth. Then he gave up a single and a walk, before appearing to get out of the jam when Russell Martin hit a routine grounder to third base. It turned out to be not-so-routine for Pedro Feliz, and Martin was safe to load the bases. Andre Either drove a Lidge fastball to right field for two RBIs and a Dodgers win. In our other featured game, Kevin Millwood pitched seven shutout innings, and Ian Kinsler hit a three-run HR to end a Texas eight-game losing streak at Fenway Park.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 21-14, 60.0%, +14.16 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Philadelphia Phillies +145 over New York Mets
We’ve had a mixed bag of results with the defending champs during this season’s Marketwatch, and Phillies closer Brad Lidge has had his hand in that bag. Well today, he landed on the 15-day DL with a strained knee, so we are hoping that is a good sign for our luck with Philadelphia. The Phillies could be riding a 10-game win streak heading into this series if Lidge hadn’t blown a pair of saves against the Dodgers over the weekend. Philadelphia still enters this series as one of the major’s hottest teams, and they have its best road record at 21-8. They will face a daunting task against New York ace and perennial Cy Young contender Johan Santana (7-3, 2.00 ERA). The Mets southpaw has been especially tough against the Phils with a 3-0 record and 2.49 ERA in six starts since joining New York in 2008. He will square off against fellow lefty J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.48), who has looked quite impressive since taking Brett Myers’ spot in the rotation.
The public has been pretty evenly split between the hot team and the staff ace in moneyline wagers, with Santana’s Mets currently drawing 51% of the public’s bets. The spread wagers and parlay bets have been backing New York a little more, with 60% of spread and 63% of parlay wagers backing the Mets. Even with these close percentages, we’ve seen the line move from an opening of New York -165 at Olympic to -150. There could be some sharps backing the defending champs, and we’ve also seen some steam behind the Phils, with a Steam Move triggered by Pinnacle (+13.3 Units Won). We’ll follow that action and take the Champs with strong “plus money”.
Philadelphia Phillies +145
Detroit Tigers +155 over Chicago White Sox
The Tigers and White Sox had an interesting Monday, as the teams split a double-header and each manager railed his team publicly. Chicago’s Ozzie Guillen took the first turn after a 5-4 loss in the afternoon match. “If this was the 1980s, (none) of these guys would be in the big leagues right now,” Guillen said sighting his players’ lack of execution, including three errors and 0-for-6 performance with runners in scoring position. They were able to turn it around in the night game, and defeated the Tigers 6-1 behind Jose Contreras’ strong effort. He allowed only one hit in eight innings of work, which led to Detroit manager Jim Leyland following Guillen’s lead in publicly criticizing his team’s effort. “We had terrible at-bats all night long. Terrible. Sickening at-bats if you want to know the truth,” stated Leyland. The Tigers are looking to rebound against Sox ace Mark Buerhle (6-2, 2.91 ERA), while White Sox hitters will get to take swings against former Cy Young winner Dontrelle Willis (1-3, 6.84).
These two teams seem pretty evenly matched , which likely means the pitching is why the public is strongly behind the White Sox. The White Sox are garnering 78% of the public moneyline bets, while also receiving huge backing in spread (97%) and parlay (84%) bets. This heavy backing has pushed Chicago to -163 favorites at Pinnacle after opening as -145 favorites. That line looks to high for us at Marketwatch, so we’re going against the public and taking Detroit.
Detroit Tigers +155
Games to Watch (21-14, +14.16 units)
Philadelphia Phillies +145
Detroit Tigers +155
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com