6/02/2009 4:55 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Another split from the Marketwatch, but another issue turning out a profit thanks to underdog lines. In our first game, the Rays broke a five-game losing streak behind a strong outing from starter James Shields. Evan Longoria blasted a three-run homer in the sixth inning of Twins starter Scott Baker to give Tampa Bay a lead they wouldn’t relinquish. In our other highlighted action, the Mariners pounded out 11 hits, 10 off Angels starter John Lackey, to push five runs across the plate. That was more than enough as Jason Vargas allowed only two runs, and three relievers closed out the effort in shutout form.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 19-12, 61.3%, +13.38 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Philadelphia Phillies +150 over San Diego Padres (#963)
The defending champion Phillies have been on a hot streak since mid-May with a 13-4 record since May 15th. Nine of those wins came on the road, including 5-3 win in Monday’s series opener against the Padres. This current run has pushed them atop the NL East standings thanks to a well-balanced lineup which contains six players with at least 25 RBIs on the season. The story is opposite for the Padres, whose offense is led by Adrian Gonzalez without much support. Gonzalez hit is MLB-leading 21st homerun on Monday, but it wasn’t enough to keep San Diego from its fourth loss in six games. The Padres will hope to reverse that trend by sending ace Jake Peavy (5-5, 3.67 ERA) to the mound against Philadelphia’s Antonio Bastardo, who is making his MLB debut. The young southpaw had a 1.89 ERA in 11 minor league games this season.
With Peavy toeing the rubber against a rookie, San Diego predictably opened as huge -200 favorites at Olympic. The public is backing this mismatch by taking the Padres at 58% of moneyline bets and 57% of parlay wagers. Despite this even moderate backing, the line has dropped drastically in the opposite direction. We have seen the Padres drop to -160 favorites at Olympic even with the public support. It appears some sharp bettors are backing the defending champs. The market movement triggered multiple Betting System plays for Philly, including a Steam Move from Canbet (+17.1 Units Won). We’ll take the hot team with some big “plus money.”
Philadelphia Phillies +150
Kansas City Royals +147 over Tampa Bay Rays (#973)
The Royals haven’t fared well in Tampa Bay over previous five seasons, with a 5-16 record since 2004. They are hoping for better results during this three-game series in which the Rays enter with some struggles. Tampa Bay has received some solid individual performances from its lineup over the last month, but they haven’t translated to wins for the team. Carl Crawford hit .355 last month with 21 SBs, and Evan Longoria set a franchise record with 31 RBIs in May. That helped the team set a club record with 184 runs during the month, but it only propelled them to a 16-14 record. The Royals closed out May on a four-game skid to go along with separate four- and six-game losing streaks earlier in the month. Those streaks helped drop Kansas City from first in the AL Central to fourth, where they are now 5.5 games behind Detroit. They hope to capitalize on a struggling Andy Sonnanstine (3-5, 7.66 ERA) by sending Kyle Davies (2-4, 5.09) to the mound. Neither pitcher has lived up to moderate expectations their teams had prior to the season.
The public is taking the Rays while laying the money in heavy percentages since the line opened at Olympic at Tampa Bay -150. The Rays are receiving 75% of moneyline bets, 79% of runline bets, and 84% of parlay wagers. This backing has pushed the Rays to -160 favorites, and the movement has triggered multiple Betting System plays, including a Steam Move from Bet Jamaica (+7 Units). We like this movement, and it also fits into our research for MLB and Betting Against the Public. So we’ll take the Royals with underdog “plus money.”
Kansas City Royals +147
Games to Watch (19-12, +13.38 units)
Philadelphia Phillies +150
Kansas City Royals +147
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com