5/26/2009 5:25 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
MarketWatch went 1-for-2 on Friday, and we padded your bankroll once again. Michael Cuddyer hit for the cycle and led the Twins to a comfortable victory over the Brewers, spoiling our pick but putting a big smile on the face of Jesse “The Body” Ventura. It turned out to be a good day for nicknames all around, as Kenshin Kawakami – or “The Japanese Bullet Train” as MarketWatch’s Braves fans like to call him – outlasted all-world starter Roy Halladay. Atlanta was able to plate one in the eighth after Halladay had been pulled, and the Braves rode The Bullet Train’s momentum to a series sweep of the struggling Blue Jays.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 17-10, 62.9%, +11.95 units
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Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Chicago White Sox +175 over Los Angeles Angels
The White Sox began their road-trip with a bang on Monday night, walloping Ervin Santana for seven runs in the first inning en route to a 17-3 victory over the Angels. Tonight they send the portly former Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon to the mound to face the ever-surprising Joe Saunders. Saunders has been solid at the top of the Angels’ rotation thus far this season with John Lackey and Santana on the mend. It has been popular to mention, for nearly the duration of Saunders’ professional career, however, that his K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio and BABIP (batting average on balls in play) suggest a regression toward the mean in his stellar ERA. Though he still owns a 3.17 ERA this season, he has alternated good starts with average ones a number of times, which makes it interesting to note the seven shutout innings he pitched against the Mariners last week. He will face a lineup without slugger Carlos Quentin, who is unlikely to play due to the nagging pain of plantar fasciitis, but Chicago is still capable of scoring runs in bunches. Young second baseman Alexei Ramirez has picked it up after a slow start, hitting .370 with two home runs last week. Jermaine Dye added four homers in that span, and if the offense is clicking, Saunders and the Angels could be in for a long night.
The Angels opened as -205 favorites at CRIS. Despite receiving 69% of moneyline bets and even higher percentages of runline and parlay bets, they have dropped to -185 at CRIS and even lower across the sports marketplace. Sports Insights Betting Systems have seen a lot of action on this game. A Smart Money play was triggered at CRIS (+6.55 Units), which explains the sharp line move against the public. We also have seen a Steam Move at Canbet, a fairly new book of ours that has been performing superbly this season with +13.4 Units Won. Let’s hope we see Bartolo Colon vintage 2005 tonight and take the White Sox with sharp money and good steam.
Washington Nationals +133 over New York Mets
It’s youth versus experience tonight at the Mets’ new ballpark, as 1997 World Series MVP Livan Hernandez goes up against Craig Stammen, who made his major league debut last week. Hernandez impressed in his last start against the Dodgers, but his overall numbers (4.93 ERA & 1.47 WHIP) have been average at best. Stammen began his first start by retiring the Pirates’ first 12 batters but ultimately ran out of gas, giving up four earned runs over 6.1 innings to earn the no-decision. A rookie starter would normally not seem a wise pick against a high-octane offense like New York’s, but the injury bug has bitten the Mets hard over the last few weeks. Carlos Delgado will be out for another two months. Jose Reyes was placed on the 15-day disabled list just today. Carlos Beltran was scheduled to have an MRI on Tuesday as well. To be fair, the Mets usually have more talent in the top half of their lineup than most teams have on their roster, and David Wright and the streaking Gary Sheffield are no slouches. It will be interesting to see if Jerry Manuel tries to play small-ball and manufacture runs with so many of his dynamic talents unavailable.
New York opened at -145 at both CRIS and Pinnacle, and they are receiving 83% of moneyline bets. Yet instead of growing, the line has stayed put and even dropped in a number of places. This is a prime opportunity to utilize our philosophy of Betting Against the Public, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a Square Play triggered before the game begins. The Nationals are capable of putting runs on the board, so let’s play on Washington and look for Stammen to stave off New York’s depleted lineup.
Games to Watch (17-10, +11.95 units)
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com