5/22/2009 5:05 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
MarketWatch had another successful day on Tuesday, splitting the two featured games. Atlanta finally gave Jair Jurrjens some run support, and the Braves hammered the Rockies 8-1. That one would have paid off nicely, but picking the Tigers was backing an underdog starter in the truest sense of the word. Dontrelle Willis, who had not won a game in almost 20 months and started the season on the disabled list with an anxiety disorder, went out and threw an absolute gem, allowing only one-hit to the slugging Rangers over 6.1 innings. Detroit’s habitually shaky bullpen sensed the night’s significance and held onto the shutout to win 4-0.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 16-9, 64%, +11.41 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Atlanta Braves +154 over Toronto Blue Jays
The Braves, owners of a pedestrian 20-20 record, welcome the AL East-leading Blue Jays to Turner Field tonight with no intention of being the cure for what ails them. Toronto has surprised baseball fans all season with clutch hitting and a seemingly endless stream of transcendent performances by young pitchers. Indeed, the only thing not surprising about the Blue Jays’ season is that Roy Halladay is once again the most consistent starter in the game, lasting at least seven innings in each game and leading the majors in wins. He’ll go up against Kenshin Kawakami, a Japanese rookie who has been fairly underwhelming thus far with a 2-5 record and 5.73 ERA. Atlanta’s franchise third baseman Chipper Jones is out after injuring his foot running the bases last night, a big blow to a lineup that already hits 25 average points less than Toronto. There surely don’t seem to be many situational indicators that the Braves are in for a good night.
At Sports Insights, however, we always want to know where the money is going. Halladay’s Blue Jays opened as -165 favorites at CRIS, and their recent losing streak hasn’t diminished the public’s enthusiasm. They’re receiving 86% of the bets, but the line isn’t moving accordingly. Instead, at many places, it sits at -157. This is a great opportunity to follow our philosophy to Bet Against the Public, and we also have seen a Smart Money play triggered on Atlanta at 5Dimes (+1.95 Units). MarketWatch has spotted pitchers about to come back to Earth before, and we’ll take the sharp money on the Braves to do the same to Halladay and the Blue Jays tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers +128 over Minnesota Twins
The Brew-Crew take a short trip to the Metrodome this weekend representing the fierce NL Central. Yes, you read that correctly. The NL Central has been righteous this season, boasting 4 teams over .500 and two of the top three records in the National League. Milwaukee lost ace CC Sabathia in the offseason and has also been without the services of Ben Sheets due to injury, yet they lead the division, having won 8 of their last 10 games. Minnesota seems to be heading in the other direction, losers of 5 of their last 6 games.
Perhaps America has a lot of love for Twins’ starter Kevin Slowey; maybe everyone saw too many highlights of yesterday’s 20-1 bashing of the White Sox. For whatever reason, the public is backing the Twins at home to the tune of 69% of the public bets. We’ve seen a Steam Move triggered at Pinnacle (+10.3 Units) and believe Slowey’s counterpart Manny Parra is up to the task. Let’s ride Milwaukee’s hot streak and the market steam to another “plus-money” win.
Games to Watch (16-9, +11.41 units)
Atlanta Braves +154
Milwaukee Brewers +128
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com