5/8/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
MLB Marketwatch continues to be involved when bullpens have problems in late game situations, but we came out on the good side in our games from the last issue. The Mets looked like they were on their way to an easy 4-1 win in the bottom of the ninth against Atlanta with closer Francisco Rodriguez on the mound. K-Rod retired the first two batters he faced, but two singles, a walk and an error made it a 4-3 game. The Braves best hitter Chipper Jones came to the plate with runners on first and third and a chance to hand us a loss, but K-Rod induced a fly ball to seal the win. The Phillies got a couple of big offensive performances from their outfield on Tuesday to earn a road win over the Cardinals. Shane Victorino drove in three runs, and Jayson Werth added 4 RBIs to pace Philadelphia to a 10-7 victory.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 13-4, 76.5%, +11.70 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Baltimore Orioles +147 over New York Yankees
The headlines about this game concern the return of Yankee slugger Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod will make his first appearance of the season following Spring hip surgery, and his presence will be much welcomed in an under-whelming Yankees lineup. New York is hoping his return will spark the struggling Mark Teixeira, who is hitting only .198 in 2009. The will send another struggling off-season acquisition to the mound in lefty C.C. Sabathia (1-3, 4.85 ERA) against Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie (2-2, 5.05). Guthrie has been the O’s most reliable starter over the past two seasons with ERAs of 3.70 and 3.64, and the team is hoping he can return to that level this season. He has a career 2.63 ERA in the month of May, so this could be the start of that turnaround.
Even on the road, you might expect the Yankees and C.C. Sabathia to be stronger favorites against Baltimore. The public definitely thinks that as New York is receiving 78% of public moneyline bets and 85% of parlay wagers. Despite this heavy backing, we’ve seen slight movement the other way. The Yankees opened as -160 favorites at Olympic, but the line is currently at New York -155. We’ve seen Betting System plays triggered on the Orioles, including a Steam Move from BetUS (+3.2 units). It also fits into our fading the public strategy explained in our MLB and Betting Against the Public article. We’ll take the home team getting the “plus money”.
Baltimore Orioles +147
San Francisco Giants +180 over Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been dominating MLB headlines over the last week. At first the headlines were good as Los Angeles jumped out to the majors’ best record and set a modern MLB record with a 13-0 home start. Then on Thursday, Manny Ramirez was suspended 50 games for a violation of MLB’s substance abuse policy. That overshadowed their first home loss of the season to Washington on Thursday night. They will send ace Chad Billingsley (5-0, 2.21 ERA) to the mound as he seeks to become the NL’s first six-game winner. He will be opposed by the rejuvenated southpaw Barry Zito (0-2, 3.99) for San Francisco. Zito is still seeking his first win, but that is more due to a lack of run support. He has allowed a total of three runs in his previous three starts, but the Giants have only scored three times during that stretch.
A couple of factors are likely playing a part in the public not backing the Dodgers more strongly. People don’t know what to think of the Dodgers offense without Manny in the middle of the order, and the high odds on the Dodgers even without Manny. Even with these factors, the public is backing Los Angeles with 60% of moneyline bets, 85% of runline bets, and 70% of parlay bets thanks to a 13-1 home record and Billingsley. Even with this backing, we have seen the line fall in the opposite direction. LA opened as -210 favorites at Olympic, but the line currently sits at LA -189. We’ve seen a number of Sports Insights Betting System plays triggered on the Giants, including a Steam Move from BetPhoenix (+5.3 units).
San Francisco Giants +180
Games to Watch (13-4. +11.70 Units)
Baltimore Orioles +147
San Francisco Giants +180
It should be another exciting week in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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