MLB Marketwatch Edition 1 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
4/7/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

This is the first week for the 2009 Edition, so nothing to recap at this point.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 0-0, 0%, 0 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Houston Astros +105 over Chicago Cubs

The Cubs come into this season as the favorites in the NL Central, and they looked the part on Monday in the season opener. The public likes to back these “lovable losers” from the North Side, which can sway the odds in their opponents favor. Cubs’ starter Ryan Dempster is coming off a career year, but he has struggled against Houston in the past with a 5.18 ERA in 15 starts. On the other side, Astros’ starter Wandy Rodriguez has fared well against Chicago, featuring a 3-1 record with a 2.27 ERA at Minute Maid Park (where he has a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 29 starts over the last two seasons.)

Chicago opened as -125 favorites at Olympic, but they have moved down to -115 odds despite garnering 63% of public moneyline bets on the road. The Cubbies are also being heavily backed in the runline and parly action. This is an indication of some sharp action, and that is backed up by multiple Smart Money plays on the Astros, including from ABC (+33.33 units in 2008). We like home dogs going against the public, so we’ll take the Astros.

Houston Astros +105

Oakland Athletics +103 over Los Angeles Angels

The Athletics had trouble scoring runs last season, so in the offseason they brought in Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar Garciaparra to fix the problem. It didn’t go well in the season opener against the Angels, but Angels starter Dustin Mosely isn’t your normal number two starter. Mosley went 2-4 with a 6.79 ERA in 12 games last season. There is some uncertainty with Oakland starter Trevor Cahill, as he has never pitched above Double-A. He made seven starts at that stage last season, compiling a 6-1 record with a 2.19 ERA, and the Angels hitters will have to adjust to seeing him for the first time.

The Angels are being heavily backed by the public across the board, including with 64% of moneyline bets. Despite this heavy backing, they have fallen from an opening of -138 favorites at Olympic to -110 odds. The Smart Money plays are backing that up with three plays being triggered on the Athletics so far. You can still find Oakland at even money odds, and even some “plus money”. We’ll take the A’s youngster going against the public.

Oakland Athletics +103  (WSEX)

Games to Watch (0-0, 0 units)
Houston Astros +105
Oakland Athletics +103 (WSEX)

It should be another exciting week in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com