9/22/2008 4:00 PM EST
by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Note that the MLB Edition of Sports MarketWatch has been moved to Monday for the remainder of the season to make room for college and professional football.
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports MarketWatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
MarketWatch had a positive day last Monday, earning a profit based on a split — with two underdog selections. Historically, playing selective moneyline underdogs has proven to be a good contrarian value play and has earned profits in MLB. Our methods typically would win in the mid-40% range (45% or so) — which earn gains in the long run. We’ll aim to continue raising our winning percentage from our paltry 32%.
2008 MLB Games to Watch: 16-34, 32.0%, -13.58 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Atlanta Braves +150 over Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have been red hot, winning nine of their last ten games and re-taking first place from the Mets in the NL East. The Public is jumping on the Phillies’ bandwagon with three out of every four bets coming in on the Phillies. This looks like a great opportunity to sell the Phillies, who look to be overvalued. With an overwhelming number of bets on the Phillies, we will “bet against the public” and take the Braves.
The line opened at Atlanta +135 at CRIS — but the Public has pushed the line all the way up to +150 at some sportsbooks. The moneyline may continue to increase with the Public pounding bets down on the Phillies. Look to grab this value during the day. At the time of this writing, +150 was already available.
Atlanta Braves +150
Oakland A’s +130 over Texas Rangers
The Public loves the Texas Rangers and their veteran pitcher Kevin Millwood. Millwood is one of those old workhorses who has had some great seasons for Atlanta, Philly, and even Cleveland and Texas. As recently as 2006, Millwood won 16 games for the Texas Rangers — but as with most pitchers, performance often degrades by their mid-thirties. Greg Smith, on the other hand, has been wildly inconsistent this year. Overall, Smith has put up a solid year for a young pitcher — posting a 4.09 ERA, despite a 7-15 record. In his past four starts, Smith has alternated shut-out outings (6 and 7 innings pitched) with bad outings (6 and 8 earned runs). In his last outing, Smith pitched six shut-out innings. We look for this up-and-coming starting pitcher to continue improving — and this means improving his consistency.
The Public is looking for the high-powered Texas Ranger offense to beat up on a rookie pitcher. We’ll “bet against” the public and take this young gun over an aging veteran pitcher. The public has pushed the line up to +130 at some books from its opener of +115 at CRIS.
Oakland A’s +130
Games to Watch (16-34, -13.58 units)
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next week with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!