MLB Marketwatch Edition 14 2008

Sports MarketWatch
MLB Edition
9/15/2008 4:00 PM EST
by The Team at

Note that the MLB Edition of Sports MarketWatch has been moved to Monday for the remainder of the season to make room for college and professional football. 

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

The staff at speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

The baseball marketplace has been difficult for value-seekers since June.  Although this is hopefully on a different order of magnitude and seriousness — this is similar to Wall Street’s difficulties (including the recent news of Lehman’s bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch’s sale).  The blood on Wall Street has caused several people to give a “long-term vote of confidence” for our financial system.  Our research gives us confidence that our discipline and continued search for value in the MLB markets will earn profits in the long run. Let’s see what the baseball market has today.

2008 MLB Games to Watch: 15-33, 31.3%, -14.03 units

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates +160 over Los Angeles Dodgers

“The first place LA Dodgers.”  That’s a phrase that many Dodger fans are enjoying nowadays.  The Dodgers have put together a mini-hot streak and have one of their largest leads of the season in the NL West.  The public loves the Dodgers in this game but’s “smart money” tools alerted us to this game.  More than two-thirds of the bets are taking the Dodgers but the money line declined from the Dodgers -185 to the Dodgers -162.

This is an indicator that “smart money” is betting big on the Pirates in this game.  We like “selling” the recent good news for the Dodgers.  We also like taking the home team Pirates (.500 at home) against the visiting Dodgers who are a meek 32-42 on the road.  We’ll take the Pirates as a “live home dog” and grab the +160 that SIA still has available.

Pittsburgh Pirates +160 (SIA)

Washington Nationals +145 over New York Mets

Sportsbook odds makers circled this game because early “sharp money” drove the line down from the Mets -180 to the Mets -147.  The Mets are in the middle of a heated playoff race and need this game to keep their distance over the Phillies.  The Mets are playing the lowly Washington Nationals so the public is all of the Mets.  Even so, “big money” is taking the Nationals, offsetting more than 70% of the bets taking the Mets.

The Mets have former great Pedro Martinez starting for them, but he has been very inconsistent, with an ERA in excess of 5.00 this year.  We’ll “bet against the public” and ride the coattails of the “sharps.”

Washington Nationals +145

Games to Watch (15-33, -14.03 units)

Pittsburgh Pirates +160 (SIA)

Washington Nationals +145


It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next week with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at