MLB Marketwatch Edition 12 2008
Sports MarketWatch
MLB Edition
8/29/2008 4:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
MLB MarketWatch bounced back last week, going 2-1 and adding +2.35 units (+1.65 + 1.7 – 1.0). The pennant races are heating up and we’ll look for some live dogs amongst the “sometimes-huge-underdogs” that the sportsbooks handicap. It’s been a difficult period for baseball dogs, as testament to the MarketWatch’s meager 35% winning percentage. However, the nice positive odds have kept us relatively close to even.
2008 MLB Games to Watch: 15-28, 34.9%, -9.03 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
San Diego Padres +165 over Colorado Rockies
Aaron Cook is a solid starting pitcher who has emerged as one of the top starters in the National League, second in the league with 15 wins. Cook’s 15-8 record makes him a favorite of the “betting public” – and the Rockies are collecting a huge 80% of the bets in this game.
The sports marketplace makes the Padres look like a good value play. Although Aaron Cook is a solid, reliable starter, his ERA has been rising closer to his lifetime ERA in the mid-4.00 region. The Padres are at home where they are more competitive. The Rockies are a weak 27-42 on the road. Take the Padres and sell Aaron Cook at a “high.”
San Diego Padres +165
Pittsburgh Pirates +160 over Milwaukee Brewers
Our offshore contacts tell us that early sharp money on Pittsburgh has dropped the line from its opener of Milwaukee -180 down to the generally available -165. We agree with the “sharps” that there is value on the home-team Pirates.
The Pirates are a .500 team at home – and the Brew-Crew is a .500 team on the road. You can still grab +160 odds, which makes this seemingly 50/50 deal look like a good value play. The public sees a Milwaukee team that has a lock on the wild-card playing a last place Pirate team that has been a perennial doormat.
Milwaukee is grabbing more than 80% of the bets, but the line has moved towards the Pirates. We’ll grab the +160 and join the “smart money.”
Pittsburgh Pirates +160
Oakland A’s +158 over Minnesota Twins
The Oakland A’s are another home team that isn’t getting any respect. The public is placing a big majority of all bets on the Twins. The Twins are fighting for a playoff spot. They are just a game-and-a-half behind the White Sox for first place in the AL Central. In addition, they are 2.5 games behind the Red Sox for the wildcard.
We believe, however, that the public over-values these motivational factors. The A’s have maintained their record around .500 for most of the season and are above .500 at home. We’ll “bet against the public” and take the A’s to play tough in front of a home crowd.
Oakland A’s +158
Games to Watch (15-28, -9.03 units)
San Diego Padres +165
Pittsburgh Pirates +160
Oakland A’s +158
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com