Behind The Betting Lines Sept 13-14 2003

September 13-14 2003
By Wilson King
Football Sports Betting – Inside the football betting lines Week 1

My buddy Richie has a saying, “People are stupid.”  While it’s not quite as funny my pal Petey’s claim that “Farts are always funny,” it is a sound philosophy nonetheless.  When asked to elaborate on his thesis, Richies explains that people generally fail to learn from their mistakes, thus they are doomed to repeat them.  This week’s college football action was proof of that.

Following a weekend where sportsbooks saw large increases in new members, overall handle and total winnings, the public was back again looking for favorites to heal the wounds left from last week’s upsets.  However, the ill-fated Pavlovian response of relying heavily on the  favorite was once again evident in the Arkansas vs. Texas game, the day’s early featured match-up. While the Razorbacks viewed this week as their biggest game since their 1969 15-14 loss to the Longhorns, it was apparent that Texas simply viewed this affair as the game right before the rest of the games they played before they played Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl on October 11.  Following Texas’ cues, the public lined up to take the Longhorns favored by two touchdowns at home. When it was all said and done, Texas was wishing it was 1969.  Just like it’s “bust of the week” predecessors, Maryland and Auburn, the favorite lost outright and sent the public into a tailspin that would have killed Goose.

Although a bright spot came in the early action after most folks saw through the hype surrounding Wake Forest, the gains on this mild upset were a too little too late to offset the beating most people took by hanging their hats on the ‘Horns.Not dissuaded by their troubles earlier in the day,  everyone reloaded and fired back with a vengeance.  The late afternoon’s action rested squarely on the shoulders of Notre Dame.  Apparently learning from the day’s lesson, the public shied away from the heavily favored Michigan Wolverines.

The only problem with this trend was the fact that ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreet/Sony Play Station picked Notre Dame to win in Game Day’s EA Sports College Football Virtual Outcome segment, which goes to prove Richie’s second pet theory,” Kirk Herbstreet is stupid.”  (It also helps prove my theory that if you shamelessly plug a product, perhaps you will get that product for free.  Although, I did develop this theory while listening to an Apple iPod at Starbucks as I watched Halle Berry’s nude scene in Swordfish on a Panasonic portable DVD player.  So, I wouldn’t put much stock in it.)

Michigan not only held form, they managed to break up exotics.

Entering the late games, the public didn’t know which way to go.  They looked for an upset, but Georgia rolled.  They went to back to the favorites, but FSU and Nebraska failed to cover at home.  By the time the Oregon went off, no one had the stomach to look for anymore action.  And those that did, pinned their hopes on DeLaHoya, which told  me to keep an eye on Mosley.