College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 8 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch
March Madness Edition – Final Four
4/3/2008 4PM EST
By The Team at

Due to popular demand, SportsInsights is pleased to bring our Members a March Madness Edition of our popular Sports Marketwatch publication.  Note that we’ll be publishing editions of the March Madness MarketWatch through the end of the Tournament.    

Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, where SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch

The staff at speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.

Sports Marketplace – March Madness – Final Four

Recapping NCAA Tournament Action

Well, we’re down to the Final Four and it should be a fitting finale to a fun and exciting tournament.  The 2008 NCAA Tournament had its share of upsets and Cinderella teams – but the cream of the crop has made it to the final weekend. 

The Elite Eight match-ups didn’t trigger the contrarian plays that SportsInsights and the MarketWatch like to see.  However, the Final Four match-ups DO seem to have some intriguing value plays. 

2008 March Madness Games to Watch: 7-6 = 53.8%



Sports MarketWatch – Final Four – Sports Marketplace

UCLA +2.5 over Memphis U.

Based on the regular season and performance during the Tournament, all four teams certainly have a claim to the National Championship.  Memphis, however, has been a headline-grabber all season.  With their performance during the tourney, Memphis not only has everyone’s attention, they also have a lot of believers. 

UCLA, on the other hand, struggled earlier in the tournament – and people seem to remember their near ouster.  UCLA has “quietly” gotten to the Final Four – and when they DID get attention, it was because of their close call.  We’ll “buy” the “quiet” UCLA powerhouse at a “low” and sell the “high-flying” Memphis team at a season’s high.  Memphis is capturing more than two-thirds of the bets at the time of this article. 

The line opened at UCLA +0 (some books anticipated the public favoring Memphis and opened at UCLA +1).  However, the public’s continual betting on Memphis has moved the line all the way up to UCLA +2.5.  Many books are at +2, but a few books have moved to UCLA +2.5.  More books might move to +2.5 – or more – by tip-off.  

UCLA +2.5


Kansas +3.5 over North Carolina

North Carolina seems to be peaking at the right time, but Kansas is no slouch.  North Carolina ended the season strongly – and has been winning their tournament games with relative ease (including a few blowouts). 

NC is gathering a huge 80% of the bets at the time of this article.  We like “betting against the public” and taking the side of sportsbooks in this game.  Both Final Four games look like they can be “anyone’s game” – and the points on both underdogs look like solid value.  In fact, some people might take the moneyline and get some “odds” on the underdogs in these Final Four games.  For the purposes of the MarketWatch, we’ll “sell” NC at its recent “peak” and take Kansas plus the points.

Kansas +3.5


Games to Watch (7-6)

UCLA +2.5

Kansas +3.5


It should be another exciting NCAA Tournament for the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back soon with a new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition.


Enjoy the games!

The Team at