March Madness Edition – Round 2 (Saturday)
3/22/2008 10AM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Due to popular demand, SportsInsights is pleased to bring our Members a March Madness Edition of our popular Sports Marketwatch publication. Come back and visit SportsInsights often; we’ll be publishing a Marketwatch daily during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, where SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.
Sports Marketplace – March Madness – Round 2 (Saturday)
Recapping NCAA Tournament Action
The Marketwatch selections against the #1 Seeds paid off on Friday, with American U. and Texas Arlington losing badly to the top seeds in their brackets – but covering the large point spreads. Austin Peay couldn’t quite get it done ATS vs. Texas, but we’ll take 2-1on the day. For the Tournament, that brings the Marketwatch to 3-3.
2008 March Madness Games to Watch: 3-3 = 50.0%
NBA Sports Marketwatch – Round 2 (Saturday) – Games to Watch
UNLV +13.5 over Kansas
Many people have #1 Seed Kansas going all the way in the NCAA Tournament. We don’t deny that they are one of the favorites – but we also believe that all of the attention on the brackets creates value in the sports marketplace. Many casual bettors will put a small amount down on their bracket pick… And they won’t mind losing a few bucks when their bracket pick moves to the next round. This creates opportunity for the value sports investor.
At the time of this writing, Kansas is grabbing around 70% of the bets in this matchup. This is creating pressure on the point spread, moving it from its opener of UNLV +12.5 to UNLV +13.5. By tip-off time, the spread could be even larger. We like the value on the double-digit dog, combined with a one point additional move.
Texas A&M +10.5 over UCLA
Similar to UNLV, Texas A&M finds itself against an elite #1 seed in UCLA. However, for similar reasons, Sports Marketwatch readers will know that we see value in this kind of game. The NCAAs are heavily watched – particularly this weekend when everyone still has a chance to win their office pools.
The huge interest, seen by the surge in the number of bets – shows evidence of more “casual” bets – and value for the sharp sports investor. UCLA is capturing a huge 5 out of every 6 bets at the time of this writing. The line opened at Texas A&M +10.5 and inched up to +11, before “sharp money” moved it back down to +10. The overwhelming public sentiment on UCLA may move the line further, but it may be prudent to grab the +10.5 that Matchbook still lists.
Texas A&M +10.5
Michigan St +2.5 over Pittsburgh
This is an interesting match-up. Many sports fans saw Pittsburgh crush Oral Roberts by almost 20 points. Pittsburgh has been surging recently, winning the Big East Tournament and seems to be playing like a #1 Seed to some fans. Michigan State doesn’t have a “flashy resume” – but they are a solid team.
Fans, however, know what they saw on Thursday. They saw a hot Pittsburgh team win their game handily, while Michigan State won a relatively tight game over Temple. The public is pounding Pittsburgh as if they were taking a #1 Seed to beat a #16 Seed with no point spread! About 9 out of every 10 bets are coming in on Pittsburgh.
The line opened at CRIS at Michigan St -1.5 – but all books almost immediately moved to Pittsburgh -2 – and is now at Pitt -2.5. We like “betting against the public” in this one!
Michigan St +2.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for the Games to Watch for March Madness.
Games to Watch (3-3-0)
Texas A&M +10.5
Michigan St +2.5
It should be another exciting NCAA Tournament for the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back soon with a new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com