College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 2 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch
March Madness Edition – Round 1 (Friday)
3/21/2008 11:01 AM EST
By The Team at

Due to popular demand, SportsInsights is pleased to bring our Members a March Madness Edition of our popular Sports Marketwatch publication.  Come back and visit SportsInsights often; we’ll be publishing a Marketwatch daily during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. 

Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, where SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch

The staff at speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.

Sports Marketplace – March Madness – Round 1 (Friday)

Recapping NCAA Tournament Action

We got off to a slow start in Thursday’s early afternoon March Madness games, but got on the right track in the evening.  Belmont’s speed kept them in the game with Duke the entire game, down to a last second shot and a one point loss!  On the other hand, Oral Roberts got stomped on by Pittsburgh and Portland St. couldn’t quite stay within 22.5 of Kansas. 

2008 March Madness Games to Watch: 1-2 = 33.3%


NBA Sports Marketwatch – Round 1 (Friday) – Games to Watch

Texas Arlington +24.5 over Memphis

As mentioned in’s March Madness article, Round One has seen the #1 and #2 Seeds go just 42% “against the spread” over the past five years.  With the betting public “all over” the almost-undefeated Memphis team, the 25-point spread might be a little over-inflated. 

Almost three out of every four bets are coming in on Memphis -24.5.  Note that the line has actually decreased to Memphis -24.5 from its -25 opener.  We’ll take the side of the sportsbooks and “bet against” the public.

Texas Arlington +24.5

American U +20 over Tennessee

Tennessee made a name for itself by defeating then-undefeated Memphis in a huge game late in the season.  The public saw that game and looks like it is over-valuing Tennessee to the tune of four-out-of-every-five bets coming in on Tennessee (when factoring in Teasers and Parlays). 

We’ll “sell” Tennessee at a recent “high” and take American U. plus the points.  Note that Tennessee has actually come back down a bit lately.  After defeating Memphis and running their record to 25-2, Tennessee finished 5-2 over their last seven games, losing to solid, but NOT top 20 teams.  Tennessee should win this game easily, but may have an uphill climb against the 20 point spread.  

American U. +20

Austin Peay +15.5 over Texas’s sports marketplace statistics highlight this game as a sign of “big money” and/or “smart money” taking Austin Peay and the big points.  The line opened at Austin Peay +16.5 but has come down to +15.5 – even with an overwhelming percentage of bets on Texas. 

A huge 80% of the bets are landing on Texas, but the line actually decreased.  As usual, we’ll tag along with the “smart money” and bet against the public. 

Austin Peay +15.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for the Games to Watch for March Madness.

Games to Watch (1-2-0)

Texas Arlington +24.5

American U. +20

Austin Peay +16

It should be another exciting NCAA Tournament for the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back soon with a new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at