College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 1 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch
March Madness Edition – Round 1 (Thursday)
3/19/2008 4:45 PM EST
By The Team at

Due to popular demand, SportsInsights is pleased to bring our Members a March Madness Edition of our popular Sports Marketwatch publication. Come back and visit SportsInsights often; we’ll be publishing a Marketwatch daily during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, where SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

The staff at speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.

Sports Marketplace – March Madness – Round 1 (Thursday)

Recapping NCAA Tournament Info has shown that “Betting Against the Public” can be a profitable strategy in the major sports. This bias is even stronger during games that are nationally televised – or better yet, during huge media events like the NCAA Tournament! (Please visit’s Resources and Articles for more information on “value” in the sports marketplace.) We’ll try to capitalize on this bias – as well as the public’s tendency to overvalue large favorites – during the NCAA Tournament.

2008 March Madness Games to Watch: 0-0 = 0%

FREE Premium Pro Membership Offer

To kick off the 2008 March Madness tournament and help welcome to our list of contributing books, we’re giving away a Free Month of Premium Pro. All you have to do is keep doing what you’re already doing – placing bets on college basketball games. Simply open a new account at depositing at least $150- and you’ll receive a FREE month of our Premium Pro Membership.

This is a no-brainer. Skybook is one of the most trusted online sportsbooks. They consistently offer competitive odds, excellent customer service, plus a generous 50% Free Play Bonus on your first deposit. If you’re planning on fading the public this March Madness, Skybook is a must-have sportsbook. If you already have a paying SI membership, don’t worry, you’re still eligible. We’ll simply extend your existing membership 1 month.

Have pay for your Premium Pro Membership! CLICK FOR DETAILS

NBA Sports Marketwatch – Round 1 (Thursday) – Games to Watch

Belmont +20 over Duke

Everybody knows Duke – and that is creating some value in the point spread. Duke is capturing around 20% of the bets (when factoring in Teasers and Parlays). Such an overwhelming margin suggests that the line is inflated to help the sportsbooks balance their risk – as well as maximize their profit margins.

The general “public” is betting on the famous Duke name as if there is no point spread. NCAA Round 1 games can often be blowouts between high seeds and much-lower-seeded, overmatched teams. However, more often than not, the better team breezes to victory – but can’t quite cover the point spread.

Belmont +20

Oral Roberts +9.5 over Pittsburgh

Oddsmakers at the offshore sportsbooks circled this game and told us that “smart money” is taking Oral Roberts to stay close in this game. A “big 75%” of the bets are coming in on Oral Roberts, with a “huge 95%” of the Teasers/Parlays coming in on Pittsburgh.

Even with the overwhelming “Betting Percentage” on Pittsburgh, the line has actually moved down from the opener of Pittsburgh -10 to Pittsburgh -9. As our Sports Marketwatch readers know, this is a good indicator that larger bets (big money!), and typically “smart money” is “Betting Against the Public.”

Pittsburgh started the season winning eleven games in a row, capping its run with a huge televised victory over Duke, to go 11-0. Pittsburgh made a name for itself and was one of the top-ranked teams in the nation after knocking off Duke. Since that game, they have gone a more down-to-earth 15-9. We’ll take Oral Roberts and join the side of the “smart money” and the sportsbooks – over “Joe Public.” There are still some +9.5’s.

Oral Roberts +9.5

Portland St. +22.5 over Kansas

This is another example of a “high seed” playing an overmatched opponent. We expect Kansas to win easily. Almost 80% of the bettors agree, and think that Kansas will also beat the 22.5 point spread.

However, our research and database shows that during March, this kind of scenario (large point spread, with the public loving the favorite) often favors the underdog PLUS the points. We’ll take the +22.5 points and hope that Kansas looks ahead to the rest of the tournament – in terms of more “serious” competition, resting starters, as well as protection against potential injuries.

Portland St. +22.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for the Games to Watch for March Madness.

Games to Watch (0-0-0)
Belmont +20
Oral Roberts +9.5
Portland St. +22.5

It should be another exciting NCAA Tournament for the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back soon with a new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at