NCAA Basketball (November 2003 – February 2005)’s philosophy is that inefficiencies exist in the sports betting marketplace.  In particular, we believe that “fading” (or “going against”) the “Public” can improve your betting results.  In this article, we study college basketball data over the past two seasons.  As you will see below, the results once again demonstrate that fading “the Public” – and the inherent biases of the Public – can increase one’s bottom line.  The information on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only.  Use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited.

NCAA Hoops Data

Our database for college hoops covers almost 5,500 games over the past two seasons.  We present results for the entire two-year period, as well as for the current season (to look for consistency).  We used rules similar to what we used for the NBA (Article #1) in order to clean the data and ensure the integrity of the results.

  • Did not use data if Public % was 0% or 100%
  • NCAA Hoops data from 11/03 – 2/05 (5492 games)

Line Moves and Public Betting Percentage

We studied “Line Moves” for college basketball games with and without Public % as a factor.  Table 1 shows the results for Line Moves Only (without using the added information of what the Public is doing.).  Table 2 shows the results for Line Moves – with Public % in the Opposite Direction of the Line Move.

As you can see, in almost every instance, “fading the Public” increases the winning percentage.  You can also see that the results show good consistency for various Line Moves and across time periods (the two columns of results).

This approach is a proxy for determining where the “smart money” is going: by studying “Line Moves” in relation to “Public Betting Percentage.”  This is just one method mentioned in our website’s “How To Win” section.

Table 1: Line Move Only

Line Move Nov 03 – Feb 05 (# games) Nov 04 – Feb 05 (# games)
0.5 or more 49.9% (4031) 50.7% (1957)
1.0 or more 50.5% (2316) 50.7% (1222)
1.5 or more 50.9% (1161) 52.1% (649)
2.0 or more 51.8% (560) 53.1% (339)
2.5 or more 54.6% (262) 56.8% (169)


Table 2:  Line Move with Public % in Opposite Direction


Line Move Nov 03 – Feb 05 (# games) Nov 04 – Feb 05 (# games)
0.5 or more 50.6% (1776) 51.9% (869)
1.0 or more 51.2% (1002) 51.8% (537)
1.5 or more 50.7% (469) 51.8% (272)
2.0 or more 52.4% (208) 54.1% (133)
2.5 or more 57.6% (92) 62.0% (72) is always trying to improve our website and the information we provide.  Recently, we added the “Percentage of Actual Money Bet” to our information tables.  Please visit our Forum and let us know what additional features you might find useful.  We’d also like your input on our articles.

We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will continue to exist.  It is impossible to predict the future.  Any serious academic research in the field of market efficiencies realizes that inefficiencies disappear over time.  Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself.

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