College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 1 2009-10

Sports MarketWatch
11/23/2009  5:10 PM EST
By The Team at 

Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Basketball Edition, where SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch

The staff at speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and which ones the Sharps are pounding.  Let’s look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.

Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Basketball Edition

2009-10 NCAA Basketball Games to Watch: 0-0, 0%*

Purdue -2 over Tennessee – 8:30pm EST

The Virgin Islands Paradise Jam has come to its defining moment, and the two teams everyone wants to see are facing off for the tournament championship.  Seventh-ranked Purdue will take on tenth-ranked Tennessee in a clash of styles.  Both teams are loaded with talented veterans, so a simple outclassing of one side is unlikely.  While Purdue will likely rely on the halfcourt efficiency and versatility of Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore, Tennessee will apply defensive pressure early and often in hopes of scoring points off turnovers.

Purdue opened as the slightest of favorites: -1 at both CRIS and Pinnacle.  It is the Volunteers, though, who are getting the majority of public support, specifically 56% of spread bets and 60% of parlay and teaser bets.  Normally, this might be enough to bring the line to a pick ’em.  Instead, the spread has grown across the board, all the way to Purdue -2.5 at a number of sportsbooks.  The reverse line movement indicates some big, sharp money in play… just the kind we like to follow.  A number of books will let you save a half-point, certainly a wise idea in what could be a very tight finish.

Purdue -2

Fresno State +3.5 over San Diego State – 10:00pm EST

The Bulldogs of Fresno State will look to rebound from a surprising loss at Seattle last week as they welcome the Aztecs of San Diego State.  To do so, they’ll need sophomore swingman Paul George to continue to fill the stat sheet.  George is averaging 19.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.0 steals a game, leading the team in all three categories.  The Aztecs will counter with a deeper attack, as key contributors off the bench have emerged only three games into the season.

Visiting San Diego State has received 68% of both spread and parlay wagers on this match-up, but the line has moved against them by at least a full point across the entire sports marketplace.  They opened as 4.5-point favorites, and if you wanted to take them, you could now do so laying only three points at many books.  The reverse line movement means something altogether different to us, and it triggered a Smart Money play at Grande (4-1, +2.64 Units).  We’ve also seen Steam from perennial college basketball standout 5Dimes (24-13, +8.8 Units), which is more than enough to convince us which way to go in this California tilt.

Fresno State +3.5

Games to Watch (0-0)
Purdue -2
Fresno State +3.5

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It should be an exciting night of college action in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Monday with a new college basketball edition of Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at