March Madness Edition – Final Four
4/3/2009 11:01 AM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Back by popular demand, SportsInsights is pleased to bring our Members a March Madness Edition of our popular Sports Marketwatch publication. Note that we’ll be publishing editions of the March Madness MarketWatch through the end of the Tournament.
Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, whereSportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sportsmarketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on thesportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
The staffat SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some ofthe sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games thepublic is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.
Sports Marketplace – March Madness
Recapping the NCAA Tournament
This year’s Sports Marketwatch contrariansports investing picks have underperformed mightily, but that willsometimes happen with a relatively small sample size. Over thelong-term, over tens of thousands of games — and across every major USsport — “betting against the Public” has proven to add value forhandicappers. College basketball “public bettors” will be flush withcash — so let’s see how the Final Four match-ups are shaping up.
2009 March Madness Games to Watch: 4–11 = 26.7%
Sports MarketWatch – Sports Marketplace
Michigan State +4.5 over Connecticut
The Big East has done well in the NCAA Tournamentand the “Public” is taking U-Conn in this game. At the time of thiswriting, Connecticut is collecting about 63% of the bets. It’s stillearly, but the semi-final games are already being heavily-bet. We’ll”bet against the Public” and sell U-Conn and the Big East at the crestof their wave (hopefully!) — and buy a Michigan State team that hasquietly gotten into the Final Four.
In addition, to some, the line seems suspiciouslylow. The “theory on soft lines” is that if it seems too good to betrue, it probably is! All of these arguments point to Michigan Stateplus the points. If you shop around, you can grab 4.5 points.
Michigan State +4.5 (SIA)
Villanova +7.5 over North Carolina
This is an interesting game that our offshorecontacts circled. Betting has been fairly heavy, with point spread betsevenly split between NC and Villanova. Including teasers and parlays,the Public favors the powerhouse NC team over Villanova. Even so, theline has decreased from its opener of NC -8 to NC -7, due to some “big,sharp money” getting down on Villanova.
Our readers know that we like to follow the “smartmoney” — which usually fades the “Public.” Let’s go with the “sharps”and cheer for a good, close, game! There are some 7.5’s available thatwe would grab.
Villanova +7.5 (Bodog)
Games to Watch (4–11)
- Michigan State +4.5 (SIA)
- Villanova +7.5 (Bodog)
It should be another exciting NCAA Tournament for the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back soon with a new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com