March Madness Edition – Sweet Sixteen
3/26/2009 1:01 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Back by popular demand, SportsInsights is pleased to bring our Members a March Madness Edition of our popular Sports Marketwatch publication. Note that we’ll be publishing editions of the March Madness MarketWatch through the end of the Tournament.
Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, where SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming NCAAB games.
Sports Marketplace – March Madness
Recapping Round 2 – Sunday
On Sunday, the Public continued its good fortune during the NCAA Tournament. Our “contrarian value” selections continued to under-perform. This means that the Public has extra cash on hand — and that Square money will be even bolder during the Sweet Sixteen. Let’s hope this means we can eke out a little more value in the sports marketplace during the Sweet Sixteen.
2009 March Madness Games to Watch: 4–8 = 33.3%
Sports MarketWatch – Sports Marketplace
Duke -2 over Villanova
This should be a great game. Duke, a #2 seed is a slight favorite (Duke -2) over #3 seed Villanova. Various polls have Villanova ranked around #10 in the nation. Most polls have Duke around #6 in the country, although the RPI poll rates Duke as #1 in the nation. The Big East came into the tournament hyped up as the strongest Conference this year — and they have not disappointed.
Partly as a result of the Big East’s tourney success, Villanova is receiving two-thirds of the bets in this game. It is a bit unusual for an underdog to receive an overwhelming percentage of the bets — so we believe that there is value on Coach K’s battle-hardened Duke Blue Devils. Duke has not been terribly impressive in its recent games — so let’s buy them at this undervalued level — and sell Villanova and its Big East high. Give the two points and grab this rare opportunity to buy an undervalued Duke team.
Duke -2 (SIA)
Gonzaga +8.5 over North Carolina
North Carolina seems to have an air of invincibility. Various polls have this #1 seed rated anywhere from #1 to #3 in the nation. However, #4 seed Gonzaga is no slouch, with various polls rating Gonzaga around #10 in the nation. NC might be in its own class, but we don’t necessarily need Gonzo to win the game; we just need them to stay within the 8.5 point spread.
This is currently Friday’s heaviest-bet game — and almost two-thirds of bets (when including teasers and parlays) are coming in on the heavily-favored NC Tar Heels. The line opened at NC -8 and has moved to NC -8.5. By Friday, it is looking like the spread could widen even more. Let’s “bet against the Public” and grab as much point spread value as we can. Watch the point spread and try and grab Gonzaga at +9 or more.
Games to Watch (4–8)
It should be another exciting NCAA Tournament for the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back soon with a new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com