For value-minded sports bettors, using betting trends data and line-movement to identify games that are shaded solely due to public money, or the expectation of public money, will help you get the “best of the number” and increase your overall winning percentage.
Our analysis shows that continually getting an extra .5 point to 1 point will increase your winning percentage by 1%-3%.
Before each season, Sports Insights publishes a Betting Against the Public article that breaks down the most profitable levels (in terms of betting trends levels, home/visitor, etc.) for each of the major sports.
The table below shows the optimum levels for Betting Against the Public for College Football, NFL, NBA, College Basketball, MLB and NHL.
|Sport||Seasons||Betting % Level||Home/Visitor||Win %/Units Won|
|College Football||2003-10||< 20%||Home||54.5%|
|College Basketball||2003-10||< 25%||Both (> 6 pt. dogs)||53.9%|
|MLB||2003-10||< 30%||Home||+69.0 units|
|NHL||2005-10||< 35%||Both||+118.8 units|
* All betting percentages represent Sports Insights’ closing Betting Trends data.
** Pinnacle’s closing lines were used to determine units won/lost and winning percentages.