This past weekend, the NHL had its All-Star Break. With the lull before the Superbowl, SportsInsights decided to take a look at how the NHL Season has progressed. Over the past few years, there has been increased interest in hockey as a sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights has supported the NHL stats on our site and has offered our Members the full slate of SIs’ features — including Square Plays and Smart Money Analysis. Here’s a mid-season report card.
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Betting Against the Public and Square Plays
Before the season started, SportsInsights published an article on how Betting Against the Public works in the NHL. Square Plays can also be used as a proxy for fading the public. So far, this season, NHL Square Plays have been a standout performer in the sports marketplace. NHL Square Plays were hot “out of the gate” and haven’t looked back. Members who followed SportsInsights’ NHL Square Plays earned more than 10 units in BOTH October and November — and are up +22 units at the NHL All-Star Break. The overall winning percentage is in the 46% range, which is profitable because Square Plays are normally on underdogs.
Taking at look at SportsInsights’ updated database for the NHL, we show that at the 45% level, Betting Against the Public in the -140 to +140 range (we studied in our article) would have yielded +15 units during the first half of the NHL Season. Our NHL database has now grown an extra 700+ games from the 2007-08 Season and stands at around 4700 data points.
Smart Money Methods
SportsInsights’ enhanced Smart Money analysis has shown strong results as well. SIs’ Smart Money feature breaks down Smart Money plays by sportsbook and almost every sportsbook is profitable on the sides! Smart Money plays on Totals are also positive, with Smart Money plays from Pinnacle being a leader. Overall, a consistent use of SIs NHL Smart Money selections would have resulted in more than +20 units on sides and totals. Many of our Premium Pro Members feel that our tools make SIs one of their best sports investment decisions.
The NHL and Profit Opportunities
The NHL is often an overlooked sport. It is less popular than football. When football season ends, sports fans focus on the NBA and March Madness. However, sports investors should keep an eye on the NHL for several reasons:
We hope that our Members will keep an eye on the ice — as well as the basketball courts — during this time of the year.
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies” recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data is error-free. However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every score and percentage is correct.