NFL Betting Systems – Visiting Underdogs

  • NFL Visitors Providing Significant Moneyline Value

When analyzing trends to identify profitable NFL Betting Systems, we mainly focus on spread wagering, as opposed to moneylines, since the majority of public action favors spreads over moneylines.  However, we decided to look back into our database of NFL information for any profitable moneyline trends to help us find value for the upcoming playoffs.

Since the beginning of the 2007 NFL regular season, betting the moneyline (instead of the spread) for all visiting teams who fell between 2.5-point and 6.5-point underdogs has produced a profit of +62.26 units.

Not only has this system been profitable over the entire five seasons as a whole, but it has never had a losing season either, with 2009-10 being the least profitable at +3.11 units.  To put this in perspective, a $100 bettor following this system would be up $6,226.

The following table looks at the results over the past five NFL seasons in more detail:

NFL Season Record Units Won
2007-08 36-48 +14.99
2008-09 39-54 +16.40
2009-10 27-45 +3.11
2010-11 36-46 +21.87
2011-12 32-47 +5.89
Overall 170-240 +62.26

* Pinnacle’s closing lines were used to determine underdogs from 2.5 points to 6.5 points and corresponding moneylines.
** Data includes NFL regular seasons and playoffs, but excludes the preseason.

Despite being extremely profitable, this system does take discipline to employ because it focuses solely on moneyline underdogs.  As you can see with the overall record, visiting dogs of 2.5 points to 6.5 points won 170 of 410 games, which is a winning percentage of only 41.5%.

As a result, anyone following this system over the past five seasons would have experienced big bankroll swings, so keeping a unit size between 1%-3% and consistent for every wager is a key factor in making it successful.  At the time of publication, there are two Wild Card playoff games that fit, with both Cincinnati and Atlanta 3-point road underdogs at Pinnacle.

For the record, we will continue to focus on spread bets this weekend, as we have all season, when determining our NFL Best Bets.  However, at the very least, this betting system once again proves that underdogs provide added value in the NFL and is something we’ll continue to monitor going forward.