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SportsInsights.com Article
SHOPPING FOR THE BEST LINES
SportsInsights.com Research Overview
SportsInsights.com and one of
its members have teamed up to perform sports data research that
we hope you will find useful. This member is a specialist in
quantitative analysis and risk management in his “real job” at a
hedge fund and holds engineering degrees from MIT. Both parties
are excited about our cooperative effort and look forward to
sharing some interesting information with you.
This collaboration worked to
produce the research in Article #1 – NBA Betting Against the
Public (10/31/03-1/25/05). Over time, we will produce other
articles that should prove to be timely and interesting. Please
let us know if you have ideas for additional research.
Send suggestion or feedback to
Contact Us. The
information on this site is for entertainment and educational
purposes only. Use of this information in violation of any
federal, state, or local laws is prohibited.
ARTICLE #2 - SportsInsights.com Research: Shopping for the Best Lines
Overview: SportsInsights.com always
stresses shopping for the best lines and using reduced vig to
improve one’s bottom line. Please see our article on "Reduced
Juice Sports Betting,” which mentions a few of the best “reduced
juice” sportsbooks and shows how the savings can add up. We
shop around for the best prices in stores; why not at a
sportsbook? Just be careful and ensure that the sportsbook is
safe and secure – so that payouts are not at risk.
In this article, we show “how
close” many games are – and the reason why it is important to
shop for the best line. A half-point difference can make the
difference between a winning or losing play. The information on
this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only.
Use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or
local laws is prohibited.
How Close are Games?
We thought it might be interesting to see “how close” games
really are. Below is a chart that shows the percentage of
games that ends within a given number of points in the NBA, for
the period 10/31/03 to 1/25/05. As you can see, 5.5% of the
games fall within 0.5 points of the point spread. That’s more
than 1 in 20. In addition, games fall within 1 point of the
spread: 1 out of every 10 games; and within 3 points: 1 out of
every 4 games! Other interesting statistics: half of the games
fall within 7 points of the spread; and two-thirds of the games
fall within 10 points of the spread. No wonder many of us find
sports so exciting.
And the moral of the story?
In addition to minimizing the vig you pay, you should shop
around for the best lines. That 0.5 a point or so can really
make a difference.
Table 1: NBA (10/31/03-1/25/05)
|
Within X Points of Pt Spread |
Probability |
|
0.0 (Game ends on Pt Spread) |
2.0% |
|
0.5 |
5.5% |
|
1.0 |
9.7% |
|
1.5 |
13.0% |
|
2.0 |
16.5% |
|
2.5 |
20.7% |
|
3.0 |
24.3% |
|
3.5 |
27.7% |
|
4.0 |
31.3% |
|
5.0 |
37.5% |
|
7.0 |
49.9% |
|
10.0 |
64.9% |
|
15.0 |
84.1% |
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Loose Lines:
So with the
prospects of winning and losing measured
by just a couple of %, we can't stress
how important it is to place your bets
with the correct sportsbooks. Sports
Insights rates which sportsbooks
consistently offer the best underdog
lines. On a typical day, the following
sportsbook will offer betting lines
consistently a HALF POINT to FULL POINT
higher then the market average.
Sports Insights has singled out the best
sportsbook in terms of betting
underdogs. We consistently get an extra
1/2 to full point in our favor whenever
we place a wager at these sportsbooks.
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