by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 2
Recapping Week 1
Marketwatch got the season started on a positive note, posting a 2-1 record for the week. Michigan and quarterback Denard Robinson handed us our lone loss, hammering UConn, 30-10. BYU earned us our first victory of the week, covering the 1.5-point spread with a 6-point win over Washington. In our rubber match, SMU feel behind early against Texas Tech, but scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to lose by eight, beating the 14-point spread.
Overall Record = 2-1 (66.7%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 2 – Games to Watch
Hawaii vs. Army (9/11 – 12:00 p.m ET)
Army rode its ground attack to a 31-27 win over Eastern Michigan last week. The Black Knights racked up a ridiculous 309 rushing yards in their season-opening victory.
Hawaii also impressed in their season debut, scoring 36 points against heavily-favored USC. Although they ultimately lost by 13 points, the Warriorstopped the Trojans in total yards, while gaining a staggering 459 yard through the air.
Army opened as a 1.5-point home favorite at Pinnacle and is currently receiving only 23% of spread bets and 13% of moneyline wagers. Hawaii played well in a high profile game against USC last week, so it’s not surprising to see the public all over the Warriors. Despite being a massive public underdog, Army has actually increased to a 3-point favorite at Pinnacle. This is a classic case of reverse-line movement, indicating sharp money is coming down on Army. Sports Insights’ Betting Systems concur, triggering three positive Smart Money Plays and a Steam Move at Olympic (+3.2 units) on the Black Knights.
At the time of publication, most sportsbooks are offering this game at -3, but one has moved the line off the key number down to -2.5. Do some shopping and grab Army at the best possible number.
Army -2.5 (WSEX)
Kent State vs. Boston College (9/11 – 3:30 p.m ET)
Kent State looked good last week, crushing Murray State by 31 points. The Golden Flashes moved the ball at will, compiling 412 yards of total offense.
Boston College also kicked off their season with a win, beating Weber St 38-20 in the much anticipated return of linebacker Mark Herzlich. Herzlich, the 2008 ACC defensive player of the year, missed the entire 2009 season while undergoing treatment for bone cancer.
Boston College opened as a 15-point favorite at CRIS and, according to Sports Insights’ line history, moved to a 17.5-point favorite in just over two hours. This sudden line movement is most likely due to the significant public money coming down on the Eagles in this game. BC is currently garnering 77% of spread and 85% of moneyline wagers, however, three positive Smart Money Plays and one positive Steam Move have been triggered on Kent State, showing there is value on the huge underdog.
Kent State +17.5
Rice vs. North Texas (9/11 – 7:00 p.m EST)
Rice got on the board first in their season-opener, but #5 Texas ran off 24 unanswered points in the second quarter to put the Owls away.
North Texas comes into this week’s game looking to rebound from a 35-10 loss to Clemson. The Mean Green accumulated 462 total yards and led in time of possession, but two turnovers, seven penalties and an inability to stop the Tigers’ ground game prevented any chance of an upset.
North Texas opened as a 1.5-point favorite at Pinnacle, yet the public is currently backing the road dog. Sixty-seven percent of spread bets and 84% of moneyline wagers are currently falling on Rice, yet North Texas has grown to a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by Sports Insights. Two positive Smart Money Plays have been triggered on the Mean Green, one each at Matchbook (+2.84 units) and Pinnacle (+2.61 units).
There are a handful of sportsbooks currently offering this game at -2.5, so we’ll follow the Smart Money, grab the home team and give the points.
North Texas -2.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 2.
Games to Watch (2-1)
Army -2.5 (WSEX)
Kent State +17.5
North Texas -2.5
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights