by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 11
Recapping Week 10
After falling behind 17-3 midway through the second quarter, Texas Tech rode quarterback Taylor Potts to 21 unanswered points in the 24-17 comeback victory for the Red Raiders, and Marketwatch.
Overall Record = 12-10 (54.5%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 11 – Game to Watch
Oklahoma State vs. Texas (11/13 – 8:00 p.m. ET)
Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon returned from a one-game suspension in grand fashion, catching 13 passes for 173 yards in a 55-28 destruction of Baylor. The Cowboys’ offense moved the ball at win, racking up a stunning 725 yards of total offense in the victory.
Texas’ struggles continued last week as the Longhorns found themselves down 39-0 through three quarters against Kansas State. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert was flat-out awful, throwing five interceptions, including three straight at one point in the game.
Oklahoma State opened as a 7-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving 80% of spread wagers. In order to offset risk and encourage bettors to take Texas, sportsbooks will usually increase the line due to the lopsided betting percentages. However, this line has dropped two full points to -5, a clear indicator that sharp money is coming down on Texas.
Sports Insights’ Betting Systems have triggered two positive Smart Money Plays on Texas, one each at ABC (+9.38 units) and SIA (+8.31 units), our #2 and #3 ranked sportsbooks, respectively, for NCAA Football Smart Money Plays. With such lopsided betting percentages, this game is also a candidate to be one of this week’s NCAA Football Square Plays, which are 35-15 (+17.27 units) this season. As a result, we’ll follow the smart money, fade a significant public favorite and take Texas and the points.
Texas +6 (Bodog)
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So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Game to Watch for NCAA Football Week 11.
Game to Watch (12-10)
Texas +6 (Bodog)
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights